In mid-March, House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed hope that the wave of resignations among frustrated GOP lawmakers had come to an end. However, just a week later, Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin announced his early departure, leaving the House Republicans with a slim majority of 217 seats compared to Democrats’ 213. While special elections could bolster their ranks, the GOP could risk losing their majority if more of their colleagues resign before their terms end, potentially giving Democrats an operational majority.
The possibility of Democrats taking control of the House mid-Congress for the first time ever is relatively low, according to politics experts. However, the GOP’s tiny majority makes any mid-session departures significant, as it could jeopardize Republicans’ ability to hold onto the majority. There could be more strategic retirements timed around special elections to fill vacancies in the House as required by the Constitution. The upcoming special elections are expected to uphold the GOP majority, giving them a bit more cushion to maintain control.
The wave of retirements among House Republicans, including strategic timing and early departures, may reflect their dissatisfaction with serving in Congress. The high number of mid-Congress retirements is uncommon, indicating the deep discontent within the GOP in the House. After Easter, more dysfunction within the Republican party could lead to further resignations, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene calling for Speaker Johnson’s removal over his support for a government funding bill and disagreements over sending aid to Ukraine.
The ongoing Republican infighting and threats to Speaker Johnson’s leadership could lead to more early retirements among GOP lawmakers. Speaker Johnson will need to work to prevent further resignations and navigate party fractures to protect the Republican majority. The speaker and House GOP leadership are in close communication with members, including retirees, emphasizing the importance of defending and growing the House Republican majority in the upcoming elections. Despite the challenges, it is uncertain if Democrats will be able to flip control of the House mid-Congress.
In conclusion, the House Republicans face the challenge of maintaining their slim majority amid a wave of retirements and discontent within the party. The upcoming special elections are expected to uphold the GOP majority, but strategic retirements and infighting could further weaken their position. Speaker Johnson will need to work to prevent additional resignations and navigate party disagreements to protect the Republican majority in the face of Democratic challenges. Despite the uncertainty, control of the House flipping mid-Congress remains relatively low, but the situation is fluid and could change rapidly.
