The playoff picture for Major League Baseball already seems set, according to predictions from oddsmakers at FanGraphs. Currently, six teams in the American League have a chance of making the playoffs by more than 74 percent, and only one other holds a 20 percent chance. The National League is even more decided with five teams having at least a 90 percent chance of making it to the postseason, another at just below 75 percent, and just one other with a notionally higher chance of 25.3 percent.
In the American League, the New York Yankees (99.4 percent chance), Baltimore Orioles (97.8 percent), and Cleveland Guardians (92.5 percent) are expected to advance to the postseason. The Houston Astros (90.3 percent) and Minnesota Twins (87.7 percent) are also strong bets. However, there’s still a competition for the last wild card spot, currently held by the Kansas City Royals (75.1 percent).
In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers (100 percent), Philadelphia Phillies (99.5 percent), and Milwaukee Brewers (99.3 percent) will almost definitely make the playoffs. The San Diego Padres (95.1 percent) and Arizona Diamondbacks (92 percent) have moved ahead during the season and stand a strong chance of joining them. Even with their list of injuries, the Atlanta Braves carry a strong 74.6 percent chance of securing the final wild card spot.
This sharp picture began to emerge after the All-Star break when some teams began to distance themselves from the competition. The best performing teams since the break, namely – the Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers, Royals, Astros, and Brewers, have controlled almost every playoff spot. Teams like the Astros separated themselves, with other teams such as the Mariners lagging behind despite significant additions to their roster.
In the National League, the Brewers have established their lead away from the rest of the Central division. Despite starting in a relatively strong position, other teams have not kept pace. In the NL West, the Giants have been outpaced by the Padres and Diamondbacks. However, both may have caught the favored Dodgers if not for their own strong performance. The Giants, Padres, and Diamondbacks are heavily tipped to advance as wild cards.
There still remains a few uncertainties and potential surprises as teams scramble for the last few spots for the playoffs. Teams such as the Red Sox could potentially upstage favorites to sneak into the playoffs. However, as things stand, the playoff landscape is largely set, and the real sprint to October may already be over before September has even begun.
