Ukraine continues its advances in the Kursk region and is taking steps to consolidate and coordinate ongoing operations on Russian soil. There have been questions surrounding whether Moscow is pulling its forces out of Ukraine to reinforce its defenses. Russian forces, after initial disarray and disorganization, have deployed in greater force to the region, likely from elsewhere along the contact line. However, Russian forces are still maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in the east of Ukraine, particularly around the Donetsk region. Russian military command claims to be getting closer to Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The military administration of Pokrovsk has called for residents to evacuate as Russian forces encircle the city.
With Russia beginning to move certain elements from Ukraine to respond to the situation in the Kursk region, questions arise about the types of units being redeployed and where they are coming from. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Moscow is concentrating its efforts in the east, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukraine has deployed some of its best battle-hardened forces to the region, facing Russian conscripts who receive limited training before being sent to their posts. Concerns have been raised by the mothers of these conscripts stationed in the Kursk area, calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to remove their children from the area, emphasizing that the young conscripts are not prepared for military action.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Putin had promised that conscripts would not be involved in combat. Despite this, many conscripts have been taken prisoner by Ukrainian troops. Ukraine’s domestic security service, the SBU, has captured Russian soldiers, including conscripts, in the Kursk region. The continued capture of Russian prisoners, including conscripts, may help to bolster Kyiv’s efforts to bring back Ukrainian civilians and soldiers, including those defending the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol. Hundreds of defenders from the siege of Mariupol remain in captivity in Russia with little information on their condition or whereabouts.
As Ukraine continues its advances in the Kursk region, questions remain about the redeployment of Russian forces from Ukraine to reinforce defenses in the area. Russian forces have been focusing their efforts in the east of Ukraine, particularly around the Donetsk region, where they are pursuing a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces. These ongoing operations in Ukraine may be impacting the training and readiness of Russian conscripts who have been deployed to the region. The capture of Russian soldiers, including conscripts, by Ukrainian forces may further complicate the situation and impact the ongoing conflict.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has observed reports of elements of Russian regiments redeploying to the Kursk region from Ukraine, but the types of units being moved and their origins suggest that the Russian military command is still prioritizing ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. There are concerns about the well-being and readiness of Russian conscripts deployed to the Kursk region, with calls from the mothers of these conscripts urging Putin to remove their children from the area. The capture of Russian prisoners, including conscripts, by Ukrainian forces may influence the dynamics of the conflict and efforts to bring back Ukrainian civilians and soldiers from captivity. The situation in the Kursk region remains fluid, with ongoing advances by Ukrainian forces and continued operations by Russian forces in the Donetsk region and beyond.
