The Russian forces are closing in on the Ukrainian stronghold of Vuhledar, with concerns growing that the city could soon fall into Russian hands. British intelligence reported that Russian troops were surrounding Vuhledar from three directions, threatening to cut off the last remaining roadway out of the city. Russia’s advances toward Vuhledar have intensified following the capturing of Vodyane in mid-September, opening up a new front against the city. The key question now is whether Ukraine can hold Vuhledar and what the capture of the city would mean for Russian troops.
The 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade has been defending Vuhledar for nearly 20 months, effectively freezing the front in the region for almost two years. Russian forces have renewed their direct assaults on Vuhledar, aiming to encircle the city while avoiding urban combat. The use of guided bombs to target key defensive positions has been a key factor in Russia’s success in breaking through Ukrainian lines around Vuhledar. Russian troops have already entered the southeastern sector of the city, posing a significant threat to the Ukrainian forces defending Vuhledar.
As of now, Ukrainian troops have not been ordered to withdraw from the semi-encircled city, with the 72nd Brigade stating that their defenses are still holding out. However, there are concerns about the city being cut off from the crucial highway connecting it to Bohoyavlenka. Ukrainian military analyst, Oleksandr Kovalenko, believes that it may be only a matter of time before Ukrainian troops are forced to withdraw from Vuhledar due to the lack of necessary reserves for a large-scale counteroffensive. The capture of Vuhledar would enable Russian forces to continue their offensive toward other key logistical hubs in the Donbas.
After taking Vuhledar, Russia is expected to maintain its offensive towards other strategic points in the region without pausing for regrouping. The approaching rainy season and winter are unlikely to deter Russian advances, with the Russians expected to continue their swift tactics to meet their deadlines for capturing key locations. Russian forces are likely to continue their pressure on Ukrainian defenses in other key areas, such as Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove. The situation on the ground remains tense, with Ukraine facing challenges in repelling the Russian advances and maintaining control over key defensive outposts.
