Recent polls have shown that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to have a favorable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Republican nominee Donald Trump. Kennedy cited concerns about helping Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by continuing his campaign, as his support had declined in recent polls. Despite this, it is unclear if Kennedy would have garnered significant support in the general election, as his polling numbers were in the mid-single digits.
Kennedy’s appeal seemed to rest on being an alternative to the widely disliked match-up between Biden and Trump, with many of his supporters citing their backing of him because he was neither of the major-party candidates. However, Harris’ ascendancy to the Democratic ticket appeared to have harmed Kennedy’s prospects, with some of her supporters being drawn away from Kennedy, especially women and non-white voters. Kennedy’s initial pitch focused heavily on his famous family name and connections to other prominent Kennedys, such as his father and former President John F. Kennedy, but this appeal may have been limited in the face of changing political dynamics.
While Kennedy had some support among Republicans, Democrats, and independents, his favorability ratings varied across party lines. Republicans were more likely to view him favorably, and those who had a positive impression of Kennedy were more likely to also have a favorable view of Trump than Harris. However, Kennedy struggled to endear himself to political independents, with many not knowing enough about him to form an opinion. Kennedy also faced legal challenges in various states, with a New York judge ruling that he should not appear on the ballot due to listing a “sham” address on nominating petitions.
Kennedy’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Trump comes at a critical juncture in the 2024 election cycle. Recent polling showed a split in Americans’ views of Kennedy, with about as many people having a favorable as unfavorable opinion of him. The decline in Kennedy’s support from earlier in the year may have been influenced by the shifting political landscape following Biden’s departure from the race and Harris’ nomination. Despite his early promise as an alternative candidate, Kennedy’s impact on the election outcome was uncertain, with polls not indicating a significant sway in support for either major-party candidate.
Looking ahead to the 2024 election, Kennedy’s withdrawal and endorsement of Trump may have lasting implications for the race. His decision to support the Republican nominee could further divide voters along party lines, with Republicans more likely to view Kennedy favorably. As the campaign continues to unfold, the absence of Kennedy from the race may alter the dynamics of the presidential contest, with Harris and Trump now facing off in a redefined political landscape shaped by Kennedy’s exit.
