Early in-person voting for the presidential election in Florida began this week, with more people supporting Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Data from the Florida Secretary of State website showed that by Tuesday morning, over 202,000 early in-person voters had voted Republican, compared to over 108,000 who had voted Democrat. The deadline to request a mail-in ballot in Florida also expires this week, with more than 1.3 million mail-in ballots already returned, 555,000 of which voted for Harris and 477,000 for Trump.
As of now, Trump has a lead over Harris in Florida, with 679,814 votes to Harris’ 664,282. It is expected that this lead may increase further on Election Day, as Republican supporters tend to vote more on the day, while mail-in voting historically favors Democratic candidates. Despite some polls suggesting a close race and Democrats hoping to sway the state in Harris’ favor, polling data and election forecasts indicate that Trump is currently on track to win Florida in November.
Florida, once considered a pivotal swing state, has shifted towards Republican leanings in recent years following Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Governor Ron DeSantis’ reelection in the 2022 midterms further solidified this trend. A survey of likely Florida voters conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab showed Trump with a 10-point lead over Harris. Additionally, election forecasters like 538 and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill give Trump a strong probability of winning Florida in November.
Trump’s spokesperson dismissed the idea of Harris winning Florida, stating that anyone who believes so must be suffering from “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” With more than 10 million people expected to vote in Florida in 2020, the race is still fluid and can change leading up to Election Day. Trump’s current lead in early voting and mail-in ballots may give him an advantage, but the final outcome will ultimately depend on turnout and voter preferences on November 5.
