The winds of change have blown in Catalonia this Sunday, with the Socialist party achieving a historic victory in both votes and seats in the regional elections. The independence parties, who have held the majority since the start of the independence process, have lost their grip on power. The right-wing wave sweeping across Europe made a strong entrance, with the Popular Party strengthened, Vox trailing behind, and the extreme right-wing party Aliança Catalana seeking a presence in the Parliament. The debate over amnesty, which has divided Spanish politics, had the opposite effect in Catalonia, deactivating the independence movement and bringing an end to the remaining remnants of the process without giving the right-wing parties a key role in forming the government.
Salvador Illa, the leader of the Socialist party (PSC), emerged as the big winner of the night, securing a solid victory with 42 seats in the Parliament, a 28% of the votes. Illa will now face the challenge of forming a government without a clear majority of independence supporters, needing to secure support from left-wing parties such as Esquerra Republicana and Comunes Sumar. The possibility of forming a government with Junts or seeking alliances with other parties remains on the table. If unsuccessful, the specter of new elections in October looms on the horizon. Illa emphasized that Catalonia is entering a new era influenced by the policies of the Spanish government and its president, Pedro Sánchez, particularly highlighting the amnesty and pardons granted to those involved in the independence process.
The second major headline of the night was the loss of the absolute majority by the independence parties. Junts per Catalunya failed to fully capitalize on the ‘Puigdemont effect’ and only managed to increase their seats by four. Despite leading the independence spectrum, they lack the majority needed to continue the independence process. Puigdemont acknowledged the mobilization of unionist voters and hinted at forming an independence government, but the numbers do not add up. With the independence supporters losing seats and percentage of votes, the path to a purely independentist government seems uncertain. The night marked a personal challenge for Puigdemont, who vowed to step down from politics if he fails to become president.
The biggest loser of the night was the current Catalan president, Pere Aragonès, and his party, ERC. The party was unable to retain its seats and lost significant support in the elections. Aragonès hinted at resigning and taking responsibility for the defeat. The possibility of a resignation raises questions about the future of the party, with speculations about a potential candidacy by Oriol Junqueras. The right-wing also saw a surge in support, with the Popular Party gaining seats and Vox maintaining its presence in the Parliament. The political landscape in Catalonia is shifting, with potential alliances and negotiations shaping the future government, which remains uncertain as parties prepare for European elections and further negotiations after June 9th.
The outcome of the Catalan elections reflects a broader trend of change and realignment in Catalonia, with the Socialist party making significant gains and the independence movement facing challenges in maintaining its dominance. The rise of right-wing parties adds a new dynamic to the political landscape, as alliances and negotiations will determine the future government and policies in Catalonia. The uncertainty and complexity of forming a government without a clear majority underscore the need for strategic and inclusive decision-making to address the diverse interests and perspectives within the region. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of Catalan politics and the extent of the shifts in power and representation within the Parliament.
