The CIS conducted a flash survey last Friday to ask about Pedro Sanchez’s letter, the allegation against his wife, and judicial reform. The study has problems, both new and old, that could have been avoided. The first issue is that the survey asks leading questions. For example, when inquiring about the opening of a judicial case against the president’s wife, it offers two options that are not equivalent: a brief “is justified” versus a colorful “it is just a way to attack Pedro Sanchez and try to harm him.” This type of question can be delicate as it asks a technical matter to the general population who may not have the necessary legal expertise to provide an informed opinion.
The order of the questions may influence the responses given. After asking about the judicial case, the CIS then asks respondents if justice “always acts impartially.” This specific framing of the question may lead to biased responses. Following this, participants are asked if, given the current state of the Spanish justice system, they believe reform is necessary. Unsurprisingly, 80% responded affirmatively. However, the survey does not inquire about the specifics of what this hypothetical reform would entail, leading to vague responses that may not accurately reflect the actual sentiment of the population.
The study also fails to capture a balanced representation of right-wing voters. In the 2023 general elections, the combined votes of right-wing parties (PP and Vox) exceeded those of left-wing parties (PSOE and Sumar) by 1.4 points. However, the CIS survey conducted on Friday had a higher proportion of left-wing voters (43%) compared to right-wing voters (33%). This imbalance is not adequately corrected in the CIS’s estimation of voting preferences, leading to discrepancies with other polls and actual election outcomes.
As a result, the CIS’s estimates consistently overstate left-wing support, as seen in recent elections. Since José Félix Tezanos took over the CIS six years ago, their projections have consistently favored the left, predicting better results for them than what actually materializes. This explains why the latest CIS survey shows a nine-point lead for the PSOE over the PP, while a recent poll by 40dB. for EL PAÍS and the SER had the PP ahead by five points. The distortion in the survey results can impact public perception and political discourse, highlighting the importance of conducting unbiased and accurate research in shaping policies and decision-making.
