The House of Representatives has resumed its legislative session after a brief recess, with House Speaker Mike Johnson facing a tight majority due to the departure of Rep. Mike Gallagher and the upcoming special election to replace retired Rep. Brian Higgins. Johnson is aware of the slim two-seat margin he is dealing with and the potential decrease in majority as the special election approaches. While some speculate that Johnson may only have a one-vote majority during this legislative session, a House GOP aide downplays concerns, noting that Johnson has already navigated critical legislation successfully, with the exception of the FAA reauthorization due on May 10.
If Higgins’ former seat remains in Democratic hands after the special election, Johnson may have to navigate some of the legislative session with a one-vote majority. The House Freedom Caucus and their allies, who have had a significant impact on the House GOP majority, are likely to challenge Johnson on upcoming legislative battles, such as funding for the reconstruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. The Freedom Caucus has demanded that any funding allocated for the project be offset by spending cuts elsewhere and solely focus on bridge reconstruction. It remains to be seen how much leverage the conservatives have in this battle given the strong bipartisan support the funding is expected to receive.
House GOP leaders may receive relief in late May when two Republicans, running to replace ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, face-off in a special runoff election. McCarthy left the House at the end of last year, leading to the need for a special election to replace him. The outcome of this election could potentially impact the House GOP majority and provide Johnson with more support as he navigates upcoming legislative battles. The ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus and their allies have already indicated their intention to challenge Johnson on key issues, such as government spending and foreign aid, posing a potential obstacle to his leadership as Speaker.
Johnson’s leadership decisions and public remarks reflect his awareness of the precarious majority he is dealing with in the House. The upcoming special elections to replace retired Rep. Brian Higgins and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy could potentially further reduce the GOP majority, making it challenging for Johnson to navigate legislative battles with just a one-vote majority. The House Freedom Caucus and their allies are expected to challenge Johnson on key issues, such as the funding for the Francis Scott Key Bridge reconstruction in Baltimore, potentially leading to further strain on the House GOP majority as Johnson seeks to advance critical legislation.
Despite the challenges posed by a potential decrease in majority and opposition from the House Freedom Caucus, Johnson has been able to successfully navigate critical legislation thus far. The upcoming special elections and legislative battles may test his leadership skills and ability to maintain majority support within the House GOP. The outcome of these challenges will influence the effectiveness of Johnson’s leadership as House Speaker and his ability to advance the Republican agenda in the House of Representatives.
