The latest polling by CBS News indicates that the 2024 presidential race is still a close contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Harris has seen a slight increase in her support due to a positive debate performance and an improvement in voters’ perception of the economy. She now holds a slight edge in battleground states and is up 4 points nationally over Trump. Harris performs better with voters who have a positive view of the economy and their financial situation, as well as those who believe that the economy is getting better, especially concerning gas prices. However, she still faces the challenge of winning over voters who do not think things are good, as they tend to support Trump.
The debate between Harris and Trump has had a significant impact on voter preferences. Those who prioritize personal qualities over policies are more likely to support Harris, as she is favored for being personally liked. On the other hand, voters who prioritize policies are evenly split between Harris and Trump. Despite many Trump voters not personally liking him, they prioritize policies over personal qualities. Trump’s base remains loyal to him, with a majority approving of his controversial statements, such as claiming that immigrants eat pet dogs and cats. While most voters believe these claims are false, Trump’s supporters accept them as at least “probably” true, viewing them as speaking to broader immigration concerns.
The issue of immigration sharply divides the electorate, with Trump winning over voters who believe immigrants contribute negatively to American society by committing crimes and taking jobs. In contrast, Harris appeals to voters who see immigrants as filling essential roles and enriching America’s diversity. The perception of immigrants plays a significant role in shaping voter preferences. Additionally, concerns about political violence are prevalent among both sides, with many voters believing that supporters of both parties engage in rhetoric that may incite violence. The Florida assassination attempt against Trump likely played a role in galvanizing his support among his existing backers.
Both sides express a lack of optimism about the potential outcome of the election and fear increased violence if their preferred candidate loses. The overall tone and civility in American politics are noted to have deteriorated, with heightened concerns about threats to democracy. Despite these challenges, both sides still believe in the importance of democracy and the peaceful resolution of differences through the democratic process. This survey, conducted with a representative sample of 3,129 registered voters nationwide by CBS News/YouGov, provides insight into the current dynamics of the 2024 presidential campaign, highlighting key issues and concerns driving voter preferences.
