The Basque elections this Sunday will determine the successor of Iñigo Urkullu as lehendakari, in a contest between the PNV and EH Bildu. The intrigue of the day revolves around whether the abertzale party will manage to beat the PNV for the first time in autonomous elections, although subsequent alliances will ultimately decide the color of the new Basque Government. Data and figures are being published since the early hours, but not all are relevant. Here is a guide to not lose track of the key moments of the day.
Under the current polls, EH Bildu seems to have a slight advantage over the PNV, with a potential lead of one or two seats. Various recent surveys suggest that the coalition led by Pello Otxandiano could secure 30 seats, two more than the PNV. The rest of the Basque Parliament would be composed of the PSE, PP, and Vox. Participation in Basque autonomous elections is traditionally high, with some elections reaching 80% turnout. The last election in 2020, marked by the pandemic, had only a 50% turnout.
After the polls close, the first updated numbers will be published. In previous years, these are conventional surveys that were not allowed to be published after the Monday before the election due to electoral laws. Once the ballot counting begins, it is important to be cautious with the initial results as the count may still be at a very early stage. The distribution of seats in the Basque Parliament is based on provincial representation, with Bizkaia having more population and therefore more weight in seat allocation.
It is likely that no party will achieve an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament. Post-electoral alliances will be crucial to determine the next government. While EH Bildu is predicted to win the most seats, they are unlikely to reach a majority. The most plausible scenario would be for the PNV to secure the lehendakari position with support from the Socialist Party. PNV and PSOE have previously formed a coalition government in 2020, and they may have enough seats to surpass EH Bildu in the parliamentary vote for lehendakari.
The formation of the next Basque Government will depend more on the number of seats secured by each party rather than the exact votes received. It is essential to wait and see how the vote allocation translates into seats before determining the final government composition. In past elections, the PNV has been the most voted party, but the seat distribution may not entirely reflect this due to provincial representation and population density differences. The final outcome of the elections will likely be determined by post-electoral negotiations and alliances between the different political parties.
