Last October, rebel groups including the Arakan Army led Operation 1027, a major offensive that took control of areas along the border with China. This led to a domino effect where other rebel groups, such as the Karen National Union (KNU), launched their own offensives against the military in different areas. The junta, fighting on multiple fronts, has struggled to regain the towns captured by the resistance forces since the beginning of Operation 1027.
In the battle for Myawaddy, KNU-led forces encircled the town and pushed the junta administration to the brink of collapse before taking over. Around 200 junta troops remain trapped near a bridge between Myawaddy and Thailand, with the options of surrendering to either the Thais or the KNU. The junta is expected to try to retake Myawaddy in the coming weeks to prevent access to an important nearby highway that is vital for Myanmar.
Myawaddy is a critical trading center for Myanmar, serving as the main gateway to Southeast Asia. Approximately 14% of Myanmar’s total trade via land borders goes through Myawaddy, totaling about US$1.15 billion between April 2023 and March 2024. Control of territory near borders can be lucrative, with accusations against senior KNA leaders of running scam centers and illegal casinos near Myawaddy, according to the UN and British government.
The tactics described by the KNU in taking Myawaddy have not been independently verified, but the KNU has a history of surrounding junta positions before launching decisive assaults. Despite some army reinforcements being repelled by the KNU en route to the town, the junta continues to pursue regaining control of Myawaddy. The junta’s insistence on regaining Myawaddy is motivated by its importance as a trading center and gateway to Southeast Asia.
Trade at some border crossings controlled by resistance forces has been suspended, and the use of customs revenue collected at these points remains unclear. While the KNU has taken over Myawaddy, they have stated that their political administrator will only assume control after the military operation concludes. The junta is expected to intensify efforts to retake Myawaddy in the coming weeks in order to disrupt resistance access to the strategic highway that runs through Myanmar.
