Republicans are showing strength in the Senate as they are forecasted to take control with at least 51 seats on election night, while Democrats are expected to take at least 47. Montana, a traditionally Democratic state, is moving into the Lean Republican category as incumbent Jon Tester faces a tough challenge from businessman Tim Sheehy. The state’s conservative electorate and Sheehy’s strong campaign on the economy and the border are contributing to the GOP’s advantage in the race. However, Tester’s significant cash advantage could keep the race competitive and give Democrats hope in retaining the upper house.
In the House, there are 22 toss-up races, making the outcome uncertain. California’s 45th district, where incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel is facing Democratic lawyer Derek Tran, has moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up due to its competitive nature. Iowa’s 1st district, represented by GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, is also now a toss-up following a recent survey suggesting a close race. Additionally, Nebraska’s 2nd district, currently held by Republican Rep. Don Bacon, has shifted to Toss Up as his call for a “winner-take-all” system in Nebraska could alienate some centrist voters in the district.
The gubernatorial race in North Carolina took an unexpected turn when Lt. Gov Mark Robinson faced allegations of referring to himself as a “Black Nazi” on a porn website. This scandal has caused senior staffers to resign, allies to distance themselves, and the Republican Governors Association to stop additional ad spending. Despite this, Robinson remains competitive in the race due to the state’s history of ticket splitting and strong support for former President Trump. The Power Rankings have now moved the governor’s race in North Carolina to Likely Democratic.
Vice President Kamala Harris has received a small post-debate bump, with an increase in support from independents that could give her an edge on election night. Polls show her leading former President Donald Trump by two points among all voters, potentially giving her an electoral college advantage. Early voting has already begun in 21 states, including key battleground states like Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Virginia. With only six weeks left until election day, candidates are ramping up their campaigns and preparing for debates, including a upcoming debate between vice presidential hopefuls Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance. Fox News Media has suggested a second debate between Harris and Trump, which could take place in October and be moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.
