Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest, according to a new Fox News national survey. Trump has a 2-point lead over Harris among likely voters and registered voters. Harris, however, is ahead by 6 points among voters in key battleground states. The candidates are tied among voters in counties with a narrow margin from the 2020 election. Trump’s advantage comes from counties he won by more than 10 points, while Harris has similar support in counties Biden won by the same margin.
The analysis raises the question of whether the Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote, a scenario that occurred in 2000 and 2016 with the GOP candidates. Trump’s improved numbers, mainly due to increased support among White voters, voters over 65, and those with a college degree, show a shift in voter sentiment since Harris became the nominee in August. On the other hand, Harris is experiencing lower support among key demographics such as Black voters, college graduates, and older voters.
Despite the subtle movement towards Trump, the race remains close within the margin of error. Harris maintains her double-digit lead among independents and receives majority support among Hispanics and voters under age 30, although lower than Biden’s support among these groups in 2020. Trump has improved on every issue compared to September, with more voters trusting him on handling the economy, immigration, crime, guns, and the conflict in the Middle East.
The economy remains a top issue for voters in deciding their choice for president, with 40% prioritizing it. Views on the economy are split, with 70% viewing it negatively, while only 30% rate conditions positively. Trump is seen as better than Harris on various issues, from the economy to immigration and foreign policy. More voters trust Harris on issues such as abortion, climate change, and health care, showcasing the differences in how each candidate is perceived by the electorate.
The Fox News survey also delves into characteristics and traits that voters associate with Trump and Harris. While both candidates are viewed as lacking in honesty and trustworthiness, Trump is seen as a strong leader and up to the job of president. Harris has a slight edge on aspects like mental soundness to be president but has lost ground on other key characteristics. The race remains focused on Trump, as most of his supporters are voting for him rather than against Harris.
The survey highlights the motivations driving voters to get out and vote, with issues like the economy, immigration, candidate traits, and dislike for the other candidate being key factors. The candidates enjoy strong support from their respective bases, with most feeling certain about their vote and being extremely motivated to vote. The survey also provides insights into how different demographics prioritize issues and how familiarity with the candidates’ stances influences voter preferences.
As the election approaches, the race between Trump and Harris remains tight, with uncertainties about the outcome given the dynamics of the electoral map and voter sentiments. Trump’s improvements on various issues and traits, coupled with Harris’ challenges in garnering support among key voter groups, make the contest intriguing. Ultimately, the effectiveness of each campaign in mobilizing their base and turning out voters will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.
