The European Council is tasked with steering EU leaders through the next five-year mandate, and the appointment of its new leader following this week’s election will depend on four potential post-election scenarios. One scenario, ‘The Usual Suspects,’ predicts that if Ursula von der Leyen is re-appointed as Commission chief, the European Council presidency will go to a socialist, with potential candidates including Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin. Another scenario, ‘Knives Out,’ suggests a free-for-all situation where socialists could be excluded from power-sharing, potentially leading to the appointment of another liberal leader.
In another scenario, ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ the European People’s Party (EPP) may fail to secure the head of the EU executive but could secure the Council presidency instead. Potential EPP candidates for the position could include leaders such as Croatia’s Andrej Plenković, Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and possibly former Finnish Prime Minister Alex Stubb. Finally, there is the scenario of ‘A Man for All Seasons,’ which suggests that Mario Draghi, the former Italian prime minister, could be a surprise candidate for the European Council presidency, given his versatility and experience in various roles.
The appointment of the European Council president is critical in maintaining balance across the appointments of top EU jobs and providing a counter-weight to the choice of Commission president. The appointment process is notoriously difficult to predict, with factors such as the political atmosphere in each member state, previous experiences of the potential candidates, and the need for a diverse representation among EU leaders all playing a role in the decision. The appointment of the new European Council president will depend on the outcome of the post-election scenarios and the negotiation process among EU leaders.
The European Council is an elite club, and those wishing to chair it are expected to have previously attended the gatherings of EU heads of state and government. The position is essential for coordinating EU policies, ensuring smooth decision-making among member states, and representing the EU on the international stage. The appointment of a new European Council president will shape the leadership dynamics within the EU for the next five years and will have a significant impact on the EU’s ability to address key challenges and opportunities facing the bloc.
Each potential candidate for the European Council presidency brings unique strengths and weaknesses to the position, and their appointment will depend on the political dynamics within the EU, the balance of power among member states, and the negotiation process among EU leaders. The selection of the new European Council president will influence the EU’s ability to pursue its policy agenda, respond to external threats, and represent European interests on the global stage. The appointment process is likely to be complex and highly competitive, with multiple factors shaping the final decision.
