The weekend’s elections in Saxony and Thuringia saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieve its first electoral victory. The party won about 33% of the vote in Thuringia and around 30% in Saxony, coming in a close second. Meanwhile, a new leftist party, BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, came in third in both states. The three parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition were heavily punished by voters, taking well under 15% of the vote between them. These regional elections are expected to have a significant impact on Germany’s national politics and European policy.
The main takeaway from the elections was the significant success of the AfD, which outperformed the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in both Thuringia and Saxony. The AfD’s gains were historic, garnering substantial support compared to the previous state elections. The rise of the AfD has caused concern among opponents, with fears about an openly right-wing extremist party becoming the strongest force in a state parliament. Despite its success, other parties have stated that they will not enter into a coalition with the AfD, making the formation of new state governments challenging.
In addition to the AfD’s success, the left-wing populist BSW also performed well in the elections, securing over 15% of the vote in Thuringia and nearly 12% in Saxony. The party, led by Wagenknecht, combines left-wing economic policies with an anti-immigration agenda. The party’s refusal to work with the AfD’s Björn Höcke indicates a potential alliance with the CDU to form a government. Both parties have also increased pressure on the national government to take a tougher stance on immigration, suggesting potential common ground on certain policies.
The Kremlin could be seen as an indirect winner of the elections, as both the AfD and the BSW have close ties with Moscow and oppose military support for Ukraine. The parties criticize Western involvement in the war and advocate for closer ties with Russia regarding European security. The success of these parties may reflect support for their views on Russia and Ukraine, particularly in the historically Soviet-aligned eastern region of Germany. While the state elections do not impact Germany’s foreign policy, the parties’ gains highlight underlying sentiments regarding Russia and Ukraine.
The results of the elections have placed pressure on both Chancellor Scholz’s ruling coalition government and the CDU. Voters in Saxony and Thuringia punished the governing coalition parties, signaling dissatisfaction with their performance. The poor showing in the elections adds to the bloc’s challenges following lackluster performances in previous elections. Additionally, the rise of the AfD presents challenges for forming workable governments, as the party now holds a substantial number of seats.
Overall, the elections in Thuringia and Saxony have shaken up the political landscape in Germany, with the rise of the AfD and the success of the BSW challenging the traditional parties. The results highlight deep-seated discontent with the national government and suggest shifting political dynamics that could have broader implications for German and European politics. As parties navigate the aftermath of the elections and attempt to form governments, the influence of the AfD and the BSW on policy decisions and coalition-building processes remains a key area to watch.
