The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a dire warning for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, predicting between 17 to 25 named storms, the most ever forecast for May. Many other experts have also projected a likelihood of 14 or more named storms, with some predicting over 20. NOAA forecasts that eight to 13 of these storms could become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The agency believes there is an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season. The average Atlantic hurricane season typically has 14 named storms.
Experts are concerned by the unprecedented conditions expected for this upcoming hurricane season. Warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are at record levels, providing additional fuel for any storm that forms. The potential formation of a La Niña weather pattern further contributes to the extreme conditions. Without a previous example of these combined circumstances, forecasters are extrapolating from previous outliers to predict the season ahead. The critical area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form is already abnormally warm just before the official start of the season on June 1.
Last year, the region from West Africa to Central America experienced a rapid increase in ocean temperatures, resulting in 20 named storms during the hurricane season. This year, these temperatures are even higher, posing a significant threat as they can intensify storm formation and sustain them. The rapid subsiding of the El Niño weather pattern in early May, combined with the anticipated formation of La Niña during hurricane season peak, further increases confidence among forecasting experts that there will be an exceptionally high number of storms this season.
The warmer temperatures in the Atlantic can provide energy for storm formation and intensification, potentially causing storms to jump categories in a short period of time. Even if surface temperatures cool suddenly, the warmer temperatures below the surface are expected to rapidly reheat the surface, sustaining storm activity. Forecasters are observing a combination of factors that are creating a highly conducive environment for the formation and intensification of storms, posing a significant threat to North America and affected regions.
NOAA typically issues an updated hurricane forecast in August; however, this year’s forecast has been notably aggressive due to the unprecedented conditions expected. Forecasters are keeping a close eye on the warm ocean temperatures and the potential La Niña weather pattern, which are expected to create a robust environment for storm formation and intensification. The possibility of a La Niña, combined with record sea surface temperatures, heightens concerns about the potential impact of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season on communities and infrastructure. Experts emphasize the need for preparedness and vigilance in regions prone to hurricanes.
