Former President Donald Trump falsely claimed that US crime statistics are “only” going up during a speech in Michigan where he focused on crime perpetrated by people who illegally entered the US. However, most US crime numbers actually went down in 2023, including one of the largest national declines in murder ever recorded. Trump also misrepresented crime data in Venezuela, suggesting that the US would love to have crime down by 67% when in fact, US crime rates have shown a decrease in reported violent crime, murder, and property crime last year. Experts point out that violent crime has been falling during the Biden presidency after a significant increase during Trump’s last year in office.
Crime data expert Jeff Asher notes that the roughly 13% decline in murder in 2023 would be the single biggest one-year drop on record in US data dating back to 1960, while the roughly 6% decline in reported violent crime would also be significant. While there was an increase in big-city auto thefts in 2023, the overall national trend showed declines in various types of crimes. Partial urban data for early 2024 also suggests a continued decline in the number of murders in the first two months of the year. This data contradicts Trump’s claim that US crime statistics are only going up.
Anna Harvey, a political science professor and director of the Public Safety Lab at New York University, pointed out that violent crime rose dramatically during Trump’s last year in office but has been falling during the Biden presidency. This includes declines in murder, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, and arson at the national level. While not every community experienced declines in violent crime, the overall trend in 2023 was a decrease in reported crimes. The available data suggests that national rates of murder and overall violent crime were lower in 2023 than they were in 2020.
The reported violent crime rate in the US has been on a downward trend since the early 1990s, with preliminary data indicating that the rate in 2023 was the lowest since the late 1960s or close to it. These findings contradict Trump’s assertion that crime statistics are only rising in the United States. While there are caveats to consider, such as not all crimes being reported and some communities experiencing increases in certain types of crimes, the overall national trend in 2023 showed a decline in reported violent crime. The available evidence from the FBI supports the conclusion that violent crime has fallen since 2020, including significant declines in murder.
Asher, a crime data expert, noted that the reported violent crime rate in 2023 was likely at or below 2019 levels, while the national murder rate might have been slightly above 2019 levels but well below 2020 levels. This indicates that the Biden presidency has seen improvements in crime rates compared to the challenges faced during the Trump administration. The data from 2023 disproves Trump’s claim that crime statistics are only increasing in the US and instead shows a positive trend of declining reported crimes at the national level.
