Kyiv has outlined a heavily offensive course for the next few months on the battlefield, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy calling it his ‘victory plan’. The plan includes the use of western weapons inside Russia and military support to maintain territory in Russia’s Kursk region. However, experts are doubtful that Western partners, particularly US President Biden, will buy into it. They believe that the Kremlin is unlikely to negotiate on genuine terms anytime soon as Russia continues to be aggressive and push ahead in the Donbass region. Despite months of lobbying, Zelenskyy failed to make the case for using western weapons in Russian territory, as it was deemed too provocative and risky for mistakes to be made. It is unlikely that Biden will agree to these demands, as he has been clear about the limits of aid provided to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy is hoping that Biden will support his plan, which is designed for quick decisions from their partners. However, experts believe that the limits imposed by Biden are unlikely to change quickly, and Zelenskyy may not get everything he asks for. The urgency for the offensive stems from the potential change in the White House, with concerns that a Trump administration would show less sympathy towards Ukraine. The plan is set to be implemented from October to December, with hopes of not delaying the process. Zelenskyy plans to share the plan with the White House, US Congress, and both Presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The offensive is also seen as a bridge to a second peace summit with the potential of inviting Russia by the end of the year.
The plan revolves around using territory in Russia as a bargaining chip for future territorial negotiations with Russia. However, it is unclear if Putin and the Kremlin are willing to negotiate on genuine terms, as Putin has announced increased levels of mobilization of Russian troops in the region. Despite Zelenskyy’s efforts to persuade Western allies, particularly the US, to support his plan, it is unlikely that Biden will agree to allow strikes inside Russia. Experts point out that Biden has been clear about the limits of aid provided to Ukraine and may not be quick to change his stance. Zelenskyy may have to negotiate with Biden to get some support, even if it is not everything he asks for.
The offensive plan is seen as provocative and risky, with concerns that mistakes could escalate the situation further. Putin has made it clear that he would view strikes inside Russia as a serious escalation. Despite the skepticism from experts, Zelenskyy is determined to push forward with his plan and hopes to garner support from Biden and Western allies. While the plan is ambitious and challenging, Zelenskyy sees it as necessary for maintaining Ukrainian territory and potentially leading to peace negotiations with Russia. The urgency of the offensive is amplified by the potential change in the White House, with Zelenskyy hoping to implement the plan before a shift in administrations.
The success of the offensive plan hinges on the support of NATO allies, particularly the US, and Zelenskyy’s ability to negotiate with Biden and other Western leaders. The plan is designed to be a bridge to future peace negotiations with Russia, with hopes of inviting them to a second summit by the end of the year. Zelenskyy will be sharing the plan with the White House, US Congress, and both Presidential candidates, in hopes of garnering support and moving forward with his vision. Despite the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the plan, Zelenskyy remains determined to pursue his ‘victory plan’ and secure the future of Ukraine on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
