After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fears have risen in neighboring Moldova that it could be next on Moscow’s list. Moldova is a former Soviet republic that hopes to join the European Union and is in the process of reintegrating Russian-speaking breakaway territories, like Transnistria. This region declared independence from Moldova after a short war in the early 1990s and is seen as a source of tension due to its proximity to Ukraine and the presence of a Russian military base with 1,500 troops.
Transnistria has caused alarm due to its majority Russian-speaking population and close connection to Russia. Recent events, such as explosions, the shooting of an opposition leader, and a staged helicopter incident, have drawn parallels to the situation in eastern Ukraine. Moldova’s Bureau for Reintegration Policies believes that these actions by Russia are aimed at inciting panic, mistrust, and weakening the economy in Transnistria. The separatist region has also appealed to Moscow for protection, leading to concerns in Moldova about escalating tensions.
Russian ambitions in Transnistria raise concerns about potential military action in the region. While Russia has made territorial gains in Ukraine, reaching Transnistria would require capturing key Ukrainian territories. Moldova’s foreign minister acknowledges the threat posed by Russia but believes that as long as Ukraine resists and receives support from the West, Moldova can remain safe. Russia’s destabilization efforts in Moldova through hybrid warfare, rather than direct military aggression, are seen as effective.
Moldova is concerned about Moscow’s plans to launch a destabilization campaign ahead of important votes, including an EU membership referendum and a presidential election. The country suspects Russia of funding protests, meddling in elections, and running disinformation campaigns to undermine the government and its EU aspirations. While the recent helicopter incident sparked fear and panic, Moldova denied any attack and called it a staged event. The government is focused on building resilience against such hybrid threats.
The prospects for reintegration of Transnistria into Moldova remain uncertain. Conflict resolution expert Ion Marandici is skeptical that reintegration could occur by 2030, when Moldova hopes to join the EU. He believes that deep-seated distrust and political considerations will hinder a resolution. Moldova is committed to a peaceful settlement and believes that the EU membership process could make reintegration more attractive to Transnistria. The country is striving to balance the interests of the economy-driven population with pro-Russian hawks seeking escalation.
Overall, the situation in Moldova remains fragile, with concerns about Russian interference and potential destabilization efforts. The government is focused on managing the conflict with Transnistria and maintaining stability in the midst of regional tensions. The EU’s support for Moldova’s aspirations and commitment to a peaceful resolution offer hope for a peaceful future, despite the challenges posed by Russia’s actions in the region. Moldova’s efforts to build resilience against hybrid threats and engage in dialogue with all parties involved will be crucial in navigating the complex political landscape moving forward.
