The European Parliament elections are set to take place from June 6th to 9th, where citizens in the 27 EU member states will be choosing a new parliament. With over 700 members, the parliamentarians make decisions on EU laws, approve the EU budget, and elect the President and members of the EU Commission. The number of MEPs has increased from 705 to 720 compared to the previous election in 2019. Germany, as the most populous member state, will continue to have 96 seats in the parliament. All adult EU citizens, including 16- and 17-year-olds in some countries, have the right to vote.
In Germany, an estimated 64.9 million people are eligible to vote in the European Parliament elections, including approximately 60.9 million Germans and 4.1 million EU citizens. The latest polls in Germany show CDU and CSU leading with 29% of the vote, followed by AfD at 16%, SPD at 14%, and the Greens at 13%. Other parties such as the BSW, FDP, Linke, and Freie Wahler are polling lower. The introduction of a 2% threshold is expected by 2029, but for the 2024 elections, there will be no threshold, allowing smaller parties to potentially secure seats in the parliament.
According to economist Cornelius Hirsch’s calculations based on current polls, the distribution of the 92 German seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections could see CDU/CSU gaining two additional seats, bringing their total to 31. The AfD might increase their seats from 11 to 17, while other parties like the SPD, Greens, FDP, and Linke may see a decrease in seats. Furthermore, the BSW alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht could potentially gain six seats, entering the parliament for the first time.
The composition of the new EU Commission will also be determined by the EU Parliament after the elections, with current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seeking a second term. Public opinion on her performance is divided, with 48% believing she has done a good job over the past five years, while 42% disagree. Only 38% support her reelection, with 51% against it. The election turnout across the 27 EU countries is expected to be higher this time around, with approximately 60% of Europeans expressing their intention to vote, compared to 51% in 2019.
The 2024 European Parliament elections in Germany will see a potential shift in the distribution of seats among the various political parties, with the possibility of smaller parties gaining representation. While the established parties like CDU/CSU and SPD maintain their presence, new alliances like the BSW could enter the parliament. The outcome of these elections will not only shape the composition of the EU Parliament but also influence key decisions regarding EU laws and policies in the coming years. Voters across the EU are preparing to make their voices heard and participate in shaping the future of the European Union through their democratic rights.
