President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey won another term last May, prompting concerns about his increased hold on power and potential move towards autocracy. However, in recent local elections, the opposition secured significant victories across Turkey, gaining control in many cities and major metropolitan areas. These victories are seen as a check on Erdogan’s power and a way for rising opposition stars to build their profiles before the next presidential election in 2028. The results were a blow to Erdogan, criticized for pushing Turkey towards one-man rule and failing to address economic issues.
Critics of Erdogan accuse him of manipulating the media and government institutions to serve his party’s interests, while proponents point to his success in free elections. However, dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and cost of living crisis has led to decreased voter turnout and opposition wins that are considered “phenomenal”. The economy has suffered under Erdogan’s policies, with high inflation rates dampening living standards for many Turks. Although Erdogan acknowledged the losses and called for reflection, many believe the opposition’s victory is a response to the economic crisis.
In the lead-up to last year’s presidential election, Erdogan made efforts to support low-income voters with social aid and raised the minimum wage. However, after winning, he shifted to raising interest rates to stabilize the economy. Despite this, inflation has remained high, leading to the opposition’s resurgence in local elections. Some economists believe the victory of the opposition is a result of delayed response to economic troubles. Erdogan is likely to continue with more orthodox economic policies in the hopes of long-term success.
The opposition’s victories in local elections have reinvigorated opposition voters and solidified their platforms to shape policy. Key wins in cities like Ankara and Istanbul indicate a shift in support away from Erdogan’s party. These losses are particularly significant, given the large budgets and control held by these cities. Erdogan’s personal ties to Istanbul, where he began his political career, make the defeat particularly tough to swallow. The opposition’s strong showing may prompt Erdogan to seek avenues to maintain power, or the opposition may push for early elections to capitalize on his perceived vulnerability.
Overall, the opposition’s success in local elections reflects widespread discontent with Erdogan’s leadership, particularly concerning economic issues. The resulting power shift may pave the way for changes in policy and leadership in Turkey. The next steps for Erdogan and the opposition remain uncertain, with potential legal pathways for Erdogan to extend his term or for the opposition to seek early elections in hopes of unseating him. The future of Turkish politics hinges on the aftermath of these unexpected electoral victories.
