Montana voters will play a crucial role in the upcoming Nov. 5 general election, with the nation’s marquee U.S. Senate race on the ballot. The outcome of this race could determine which party controls the closely divided chamber in the next Congress. Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is facing a tough reelection bid for a fourth term against Republican Tim Sheehy in a state where Trump won easily in 2020. Tester has spent $71 million on the race compared to about $11 million for Sheehy, with outside groups also investing heavily. A GOP win in Montana could make it challenging for Democrats to maintain their Senate majority.
In addition to the Senate race, Montana voters will also decide on a high-profile ballot question on abortion known as “Constitutional Initiative No. 128,” which would enshrine a right to abortion before fetal viability in the state constitution. The presidential race in Montana is less competitive, as the state has historically leaned towards Republicans, with Trump winning with 57% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020. Democratic ticket has not visited the state this year, and Tester has distanced himself from his party’s presidential nominee. The race for governor features Republican incumbent Greg Gianforte against Democrat Ryan Busse.
Montana is not a state that conducts predominantly mail-in elections, but a significant number of residents choose to vote by mail. In the 2020 general election, 98% of votes were cast by mail due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans tend to carry populous counties like Yellowstone and Flathead, while Democrats usually win at least six different counties regardless of the statewide outcome. It is crucial to watch results in vote-rich counties like Lewis & Clark and Cascade, as they can be indicative of overall election trends.
The Associated Press does not make projections in elections and will only declare a winner if there is no scenario where trailing candidates can catch up. Recounts are automatic in Montana in case of tied votes, while candidates can request a recount if the margin is less than 0.25% or 0.5% if the candidate pays for it. In past presidential elections, Montana has favored Republicans, with Trump winning 57% of the vote in 2020. Registered voters in Montana are over 782,000, and voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election was 80% of registered voters. Pre-Election Day voting is common, with 98% of the total votes cast before Election Day in 2020.
The 2024 election in Montana will have implications at the national level, with the Senate race playing a significant role in determining control of the chamber. Tester’s tough reelection bid against Sheehy, along with the ballot question on abortion, will grab attention from voters. The state’s history of leaning towards Republicans in presidential elections indicates a challenging landscape for Democrats. Results in key counties like Lewis & Clark and Cascade will be closely monitored on election night, providing insights into the overall outcome. Voter registration and turnout data from past elections highlight the importance of understanding Montana’s unique election dynamics.
