The U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 28 that Russian forces are unlikely to achieve “operationally significant penetration” in the area west of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, despite Ukrainian troop withdrawals in surrounding villages. Despite the retreat of Ukrainian troops from the villages of Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka, west of occupied Avdiivka, the ISW notes that without additional Russian troop support, Russia’s ability to make rapid tactical advances is likely to be constrained. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the retreats and stated that unit rotations will be conducted in an effort to restore combat capability and combat fatigue of soldiers along the front.
The ISW observations indicate that the Ukrainian withdrawals from the villages have not facilitated rapid Russian tactical gains in the area. Syrskyi has also noted that while Russia has succeeded in forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat marginally, it has failed to achieve an operational advantage. Russia continues to intensify its attacks along the front as Ukraine faces shortages in ammunition and air defense capabilities. Priority is given to seizing Chasiv Yar, with an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 Russian troops attempting to storm the area, located approximately 50 kilometers north of Avdiivka.
The villages in the Pokrovsk District of Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast have been the focus of intense fighting with Russian forces. Despite the retreat of Ukrainian troops from Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka, the ISW assesses that Russia’s ability to make additional rapid tactical advances in the area is limited without additional troop support. The impending Ukrainian unit rotations are expected to bolster combat capability and combat fatigue among troops along the front line. The continuous attacks by Russia along the front line are exacerbating the challenges faced by Ukraine, including ammunition and air defense shortages.
The ISW report emphasizes that the Ukrainian retreats from the villages have not resulted in rapid tactical gains for Russia in the area west of Avdiivka. Ukraine’s strategy of conducting unit rotations to restore combat capability and combat fatigue is seen as a proactive measure to prevent significant penetration by Russian forces. Despite Russia’s continued offensive actions and attempts to seize strategic locations like Chasiv Yar, the ISW assessment suggests that without additional reinforcements, Russia may struggle to make further rapid advances in the region. The situation remains tense as both sides engage in intense fighting along the front line in Donetsk Oblast.
The intensification of attacks by Russian forces along the front line in Donetsk Oblast underscores the ongoing conflict in the region. The assessment by the ISW provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the military situation, highlighting the challenges faced by both Ukrainian and Russian forces. The strategic retreats of Ukrainian troops from villages in the area west of Avdiivka have not translated into significant operational gains for Russia, indicating the resilience and strategic planning of Ukrainian defense forces. The continued conflict in the region underscores the need for support for independent journalism and a commitment to peace and stability in Ukraine.
