The 2024 Presidential Election Year seemed initially as though Florida was going to play a less prominent role due to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ loss in the primary and Democrats still recovering from statewide losses in 2022. However, President Biden’s campaign recently announced plans to focus on the state due to the Florida Supreme Court’s ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy and the proposal of a constitutional amendment on abortion rights. This has led to speculation about the potential impact of abortion rights on the upcoming election in the state.
The Biden campaign sees an opportunity in Florida following the Supreme Court ruling, noting that the state may be more winnable this cycle than in 2020. However, many are skeptical about the Democrats’ chances in Florida, considering the state’s strong Republican leanings and popularity among conservatives. The state has become a magnet for Republicans, making it challenging for Democrats to gather support and win elections there, especially on controversial issues like abortion.
Even though Florida’s abortion referendum could invigorate Democratic prospects in down-ballot races, there are signs that Biden’s focus on the state is primarily a strategy to divert resources from the Trump campaign. The campaign’s emphasis on battleground states like Pennsylvania and the upper-Midwestern states highlights key states for securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. This cautious approach to Florida may indicate that the campaign is not fully committed to an all-out effort in the state.
Abortion-rights activists in Florida may not welcome a major push from the Biden campaign on this issue, as the referendum requires bipartisan support to pass. The lack of coordination between the campaign and local advocacy groups suggests that the focus is more on broader messaging than targeted efforts in the state. Nonetheless, representatives like Maxwell Frost believe that the referendum could attract new voters if Democrats effectively engage with the public and communicate the importance of the issue.
Despite doubts about Democrats’ chances in Florida, some see potential benefits to Biden’s engagement in the state, even if it is just to distract Trump’s campaign and cause spending disparities. Strategist Simon Rosenberg, who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2022 congressional elections, is confident that Biden will prevail in November. He points to structural changes within the Republican Party, exacerbated by recent events like the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, as factors contributing to his prediction of a Biden victory.
Rosenberg believes that Trump’s weakened candidacy, combined with the changing dynamics of the Republican Party, will ultimately work in Biden’s favor. The impact of the Dobbs case on abortion rights and the Republican Party’s struggles in recent elections reinforce his optimism for the upcoming election. Overall, while Florida may present challenges for Democrats, the evolving political landscape and strategic considerations could shape the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.
