In the recent local elections in England, the Conservative Party suffered heavy losses, further solidifying expectations that the Labour Party will return to power after 14 years in the upcoming general election. Labour won control of councils in England that they haven’t held for decades and also secured a special by-election for Parliament. The results were grim for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, but he found some relief when the Conservative mayor of Tees Valley was reelected. The victory of Ben Houchen may help Sunak avoid any revolt from Conservative lawmakers.
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer experienced a successful set of results in the local elections, with the only negative impact being in areas with large Muslim populations due to the party’s stance on the conflict in Gaza. One crucial win for Labour was the retaking of the parliamentary seat of Blackpool South, which had previously gone Conservative in the 2019 general election. The swing from Conservative to Labour was significant and could pave the way for Labour to return to power after a decade.
Prof. John Curtice noted that the Conservatives are losing around half of the seats they are trying to defend, making this one of the worst performances in local government elections for the party in the last 40 years. Labour was making gains in various regions, including Brexit-supporting areas where they had been defeated by Boris Johnson in the past. Reform U.K. was also seeing some success in their efforts to challenge the Conservatives from the right.
Prime Minister Sunak’s leadership has faced challenges as Labour consistently leads in opinion polls by 20 percentage points. Despite Sunak’s attempts to shift the political landscape, Labour’s lead suggests a potential landslide victory in a general election, similar to Tony Blair’s win in 1997. The upcoming general election, which could be held as soon as next month, will be viewed through a national lens considering the results of the recent local elections that favor Labour.
The Conservatives will be closely watching the outcome in other key areas, such as the West Midlands and London mayoral elections. Sunak took office in 2022 after the brief tenure of his predecessor Liz Truss, who faced backlash over unfunded tax cuts and financial market disruptions. With Labour’s strong showing in the local elections, Sunak’s leadership and the future of the Conservative Party are under scrutiny by lawmakers in Parliament as they head into the weekend. The results of these elections could have significant implications for the political landscape in the UK leading up to the general election.
