In October, there was a continued decrease in illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, with Border Patrol agents recording nearly 57,000 apprehensions of migrants between legal entry points along the southern border. This was slightly up from the numbers seen in the previous months of September, August, and July. The last time apprehensions were lower than this was four years ago in September 2020. The figures do not include migrants processed at legal entry points, where the Biden administration has been admitting over 1,000 migrants daily through an appointment system called CBP One.
Illegal crossings at the southern border had spiked to a record 250,000 in December 2023 but dropped significantly afterward due to efforts by Mexico to prevent U.S.-bound migrants and President Biden’s restrictions on asylum in early June. Since then, the numbers have remained relatively stable. However, some officials are concerned that the upcoming presidential election could impact this delicate balance. There are fears that a potential win by former President Donald Trump could lead to a surge in illegal crossings as migrants try to enter the U.S. before he takes office in January.
The Biden administration struggled with a migration crisis during its first three years, largely fueled by record arrivals from countries like Venezuela where deportees cannot be sent back. This crisis led to chaos at the border and concerns about security among the public. While the administration initially aimed to rebuild the asylum system, the asylum crackdown implemented in June limited legal and illegal immigration, disqualifying most migrants from U.S. protection. Those using the CBP One app are exempt from these restrictions. Migration policy analysts expect flows to remain steady if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, as she plans to continue Biden’s policies but foresee a potential increase in border crossings if Trump is reelected.
U.S. officials are closely monitoring the situation and adjusting operations according to changing migration patterns and potential threats posed by human smuggling groups. There are concerns about the impact of the election on the southern border, with the possibility of increased illegal crossings depending on the outcome. Trump has promised to seal the southern border entirely and reinstate his hardline immigration policies if elected. It is feared that this could lead to significant changes in migration flows, especially for those waiting in Mexico for a CBP One appointment.
Overall, the lull in illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has continued into October, with apprehension numbers remaining stable over the past few months. However, the upcoming presidential election has raised concerns about a potential increase in crossings, particularly if former President Donald Trump is elected. The Biden administration’s asylum restrictions have played a role in deterring illegal migration to some extent, but the situation remains fragile. Border officials are closely monitoring the situation and adjusting operations as needed to address any potential threats at the southern border.
