CNN data expert Harry Enten and news host John Berman discussed the possibility of a significant victory in the 2024 election, despite the race appearing historically close on the surface. Enten suggested that there is a high chance that the winner of the election will receive over 300 Electoral College votes. While the election seems extremely close right now, Enten pointed out that any small changes could result in a substantial victory. He emphasized that despite the perception of a tight race, there may actually be a relative blowout in store for the winning candidate.
Berman expressed his surprise at the concept of the election being close but still potentially ending in a big victory in the Electoral College. Enten explained that although the margin is currently under 2 points in the 7 key swing states, polling may not be entirely accurate. He highlighted the average polling error in swing states since 1972, indicating a 3.4-point discrepancy. Enten then displayed electoral maps showing how either former President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris might secure over 300 Electoral College votes.
Enten emphasized that battleground states have a history of breaking in one direction. He cited examples from past elections where the majority of swing states moved together, underestimating one candidate and resulting in a blowout victory. In 2012, 92% of the states moved in Obama’s direction, and in 2016, 83% of swing states shifted due to polling underestimating Donald Trump. In 2020, all swing state averages underestimated Trump, leading to a better performance than anticipated. Enten suggested that a similar scenario may occur in the 2024 election, resulting in one candidate securing at least 300 electoral votes.
Based on historical polling errors and the closeness of current swing states, Enten warned that the outcome of the election could ultimately favor one candidate significantly. He highlighted the trend of swing-state polls underestimating candidates collectively, leading to a relative Electoral College blowout. Enten concluded that there is a strong probability that one candidate would win with over 300 electoral votes if all swing states moved in the same direction. Despite the perception of a close race, the data suggests that a decisive victory may be on the horizon in the 2024 election.
