With a week left until the 2024 presidential election, Pennsylvania emerges as a crucial battleground state where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a tied race for its valuable electoral votes. Trump benefits from negative perceptions of the current economy and the belief among voters that they would be better off financially with him as president. Additionally, more Pennsylvania voters feel that the country was doing well during Trump’s presidency compared to the present. Harris holds an advantage among voters who prioritize issues such as the state of democracy and abortion, as well as on certain personal qualities. More voters perceive Harris as having the cognitive health to serve as president and view her positions as reasonable, while they see Trump’s positions as extreme.
Despite Harris’s lead on certain issues, she has not been able to convince most Pennsylvania voters that she would strengthen U.S. democracy. However, slightly more voters believe that Trump would weaken democracy if elected. Both candidates have similar levels of support on this issue, with Trump maintaining his edge on financial prosperity and leading among voters who consider the U.S.-Mexico border a major factor in their vote. Trump’s positions are seen as extreme by a greater number of voters compared to Harris, and those who hold this view overwhelmingly support Harris. Additionally, while more voters like Harris’s personal demeanor compared to Trump’s, neither candidate garners a majority of personal approval from the electorate.
In terms of voter groups, Harris is performing well among demographics that supported President Biden in the previous election, while Trump retains support from key groups that backed him then. White voters without a college degree represent a significant portion of Trump’s support base in Pennsylvania, with the majority believing they would be better off financially under his policies. On the other hand, Harris leads among white voters with a college degree, a group that has been trending more Democratic in recent elections. Overall, the race remains close with both candidates appealing to different segments of the electorate.
The CBS News/YouGov survey conducted in Pennsylvania involved a representative sample of 1,273 registered voters interviewed between October 22-28, 2024. The sample was weighted according to demographic factors such as gender, age, race, education, and geographic region, as well as past voting behavior. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 percentage points, indicating the level of confidence in the survey results. The findings reflect the sentiments and preferences of Pennsylvania voters on a range of issues and factors influencing their decision-making in the upcoming election. Despite the slight advantage for Harris on certain aspects, the race remains largely undecided with both candidates attracting support from different types of voters.
