As Donald Trump’s trial in New York City approaches closing arguments, a majority of Americans believe he is guilty of a crime in this case. The charges against Trump involve falsifying business records to conceal a “hush money” payment and influence the 2016 election. Opinions on Trump’s guilt are highly partisan, with nearly all Democrats believing he is guilty and about eight in 10 Republicans saying the opposite. Despite this divide, Republicans are less certain in their views, with only half saying he is “definitely” not guilty.
The public is divided on what they believe the jury will decide, with about half expecting jurors to find Trump guilty and the other half predicting the opposite outcome. There is uncertainty on both sides, with more people saying jurors will “probably” convict Trump than those who say they will “definitely” convict him. Those who believe Trump is guilty tend to think the jury will also find him guilty, and vice versa for those who believe he is not guilty of a crime. However, roughly a third in each group expect the jury to decide differently from their own beliefs.
Approximately three quarters of Americans report having heard or read at least some information about the trial. Those who have heard “a lot” about the trial are more polarized in their views and are more likely to identify as strong partisans. They also express more confidence in Trump’s guilt or innocence, potentially dulling the impact of the verdict on the public’s opinions. The CBS News/YouGov survey was based on a nationally representative sample of 1,402 U.S. adult residents interviewed between May 14-21, 2024, with an oversample in certain states.
The survey was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and past vote, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey. Kabir Khanna, Deputy Director of Elections & Data Analytics at CBS News, conducted the survey. Khanna, who holds a PhD in political science from Princeton University, specializes in political behavior and methodology. The margin of error for the survey is approximately ±4.4 points, providing a snapshot of public opinion on Trump’s trial in New York City.
In conclusion, as Trump’s trial in New York City reaches its conclusion, most Americans believe he is guilty of a crime in this case. The public’s views are highly polarized along partisan lines, with Democrats overwhelmingly believing in Trump’s guilt and Republicans more divided in their opinions. There is uncertainty regarding what the jury will decide, with half of Americans expecting a guilty verdict and the other half predicting an acquittal. Those who are more informed about the trial are more polarized in their views, potentially mitigating the impact of the verdict on the public’s perception of Trump’s guilt or innocence.
