Joe Biden’s recent European visit was seen as an opportunity to solidify support for Ukraine and work towards ending Russia’s invasion. However, the joint statement released by the White House and European allies offered no new pledges beyond current levels of assistance. This lack of commitment is likely due to the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the uncertainty surrounding Ukraine’s future support from the United States. The fear of changes in leadership and potential shifts in policy have prompted Ukrainian officials to intensify efforts to secure long-term defense support.
President Zelensky’s “Victory Plan,” which includes requests for NATO membership and authorization for strikes inside Russia, has not received full support from American or European leaders. Despite pleas for more ammunition and improved defense systems, it remains unclear whether these priorities align with the Biden administration’s plans. The U.S. has indicated that Ukraine should not expect a formal NATO invitation soon, as there is no consensus among allies. Efforts to increase support for Ukraine are likely to be postponed until after the U.S. election.
Concerns have grown about potential shifts in global alliances if former President Trump wins the presidency, as he has been more hesitant to provide military aid to Ukraine. The Biden administration is working to ensure sustainable and institutionalized support for Ukraine in the long term. Any significant decisions to increase support for Ukraine will likely be delayed until after the U.S. election, as the administration is wary of potential accusations of pushing the country into a global conflict. Short-term aid for Ukraine may come from existing funds, as congressional approval for foreign aid is currently off the table.
The EU has been urged to take on a larger role in ensuring continued support for Ukraine, but without significant U.S. assistance, this may not be sufficient. While EU member states possess significant defense industries, they would struggle to fill the role of the U.S. without a comprehensive overhaul of their industries and a united front in the EU. Efforts to strengthen the EU’s defense industry have not been prioritized, raising concerns about the sustainability of aid to Ukraine. The U.S. remains a critical partner in supporting Ukraine and maintaining stability in European security.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election has added uncertainty to the situation in Ukraine, as the outcome could have significant implications for the country’s future support. Both Biden and Trump have different approaches to foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and Russia. The fear of escalation and potential backlash from Russia has led to cautious decision-making around increasing support for Ukraine. The issue of aid to Ukraine will likely remain a key topic of discussion among Western leaders in the coming months, as they navigate the complex dynamics of international relations in the region.
