As international diplomats worked to negotiate a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, Israel was considering whether to proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah, Hamas’s last stronghold. Israeli officials indicated that they were prepared to enter Rafah but were open to delaying the operation in order to secure the release of about 100 Israeli hostages taken during a previous attack by Hamas. The release of hostages was deemed more urgent and important than advancing into Rafah at that time.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia for meetings with officials from several Arab nations in an effort to broker a cease-fire deal that would include the release of all hostages. The United States was pushing for a deal that would allow aid access to Gaza and ensure the safe return of the hostages. International pressure, including from the United States, was increasing on Israel not to invade Rafah, where over a million Palestinians were already living in dire conditions due to the ongoing conflict.
There were concerns among Israeli officials that the International Criminal Court could issue arrest warrants for senior government officials on charges related to the conflict with Hamas. The court was also reportedly considering warrants for Hamas leaders. President Biden reiterated his position on the cease-fire talks during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emphasizing the importance of halting the conflict and addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Humanitarian aid to Gaza had increased, but more support was needed.
The Israeli military had begun calling up reserve soldiers for a potential operation in Rafah, with plans to evacuate civilians from the area. Israel was using the threat of a military maneuver to pressure Hamas into releasing the hostages and avoid a confrontation in Rafah. Negotiations on a cease-fire deal had stalled as the death toll in Gaza continued to rise. Secretary Blinken was expected to meet with officials from Egypt and Qatar, who were serving as intermediaries in the talks with Hamas.
Egypt was particularly concerned about an invasion of Rafah as it borders the city and has proposed a two-phase hostage deal to facilitate a cease-fire. The proposal involved an initial humanitarian agreement for the release of vulnerable hostages in exchange for a temporary cease-fire and the release of Palestinian prisoners. This would be followed by negotiations for the return of all remaining hostages in exchange for an end to the conflict. Hamas and Qatari mediators were attempting to engage the Israeli public directly to increase pressure for a deal.
For Israel, the decision on Rafah was complex as it sought to achieve tangible results after months of conflict with Hamas. While a ground invasion of Rafah could potentially force Hamas leaders to release hostages, it also posed risks and uncertainties. Without progress in Rafah, it was unclear what had been accomplished in the conflict. Analysts acknowledged the challenges and complexities of the situation as negotiations continued and international pressure intensified.
