Armenia is navigating a delicate balancing act between its traditional alliance with Russia and forging new relationships with the European Union and the United States. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently visited Brussels, where he secured significant financial support from both the EU and the US. However, Russia has expressed concerns about Armenia being drawn into geopolitical confrontation by the West, to which Yerevan has firmly disagreed. Armenia values the support it receives from partners in Brussels and Washington while maintaining its close ties with Russia.
Tigran Balayan, Armenia’s Ambassador to the EU, is keenly aware of the challenges his country faces, given his background in Nagorno-Karabakh and his extensive experience in Armenian diplomacy. Despite Armenia’s historical alliance with Moscow and its membership in various Russian-led organizations, relations have deteriorated since Azerbaijan seized control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Armenia’s main grievance with the CSTO stems from the alliance’s perceived inaction in response to Azerbaijani attacks, leading to tensions and Armenia’s decision to freeze its participation in the CSTO.
As Russia faces Western sanctions and focuses on its military efforts in Ukraine, further complicating its regional influence, Armenia is gradually reducing the Russian presence on its territory. While Armenia still values its relationship with Russia, recent events have strained the alliance, such as the handover of former Nagorno-Karabakh leaders to Azerbaijan by Russian military forces. Armenia has also sought to address unauthorized operations by Russian military personnel in the country, emphasizing the need for legal adherence and accountability.
Armenia’s decision to join the International Criminal Court, despite Russian opposition, reflects its efforts to prevent aggression from Azerbaijan and hold accountable those responsible for alleged war crimes. Vladimir Putin was issued an arrest warrant by the ICC in 2023, but Balayan assured that he would face no risks visiting Armenia due to presidential immunity. Armenia’s stance on the ICC is aimed at preventing future conflict and addressing past violations committed during the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.
The deteriorating relationship between Armenia and Russia has been exacerbated by Russian media attacks on Armenia’s leadership and policies. Yerevan has blocked Russian propaganda shows and engaged in discussions with Russian counterparts to address the negative impact of such broadcasts. Armenia has also faced criticisms for its stance on the Ukraine conflict, recognizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders. Despite pressure from various sides, Armenia is focused on maintaining stable relations with Russia and its allies while navigating complex diplomatic challenges.
Despite the growing tensions between Armenia and Russia, Yerevan remains committed to maintaining its historic friendship with Moscow while seeking to strengthen ties with the EU and the US. Armenia values the support it receives from its Western partners, while also navigating sensitive issues with Russia, such as the presence of Russian forces on its territory. Balancing these relationships and priorities is crucial for Armenia’s security and economic development, as it seeks to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape and safeguard its national interests.
