A recent poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that a majority of Republicans are now expressing confidence in the accuracy of the 2024 vote count, marking a significant shift from their skepticism following Donald Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden in the 2020 election. The poll revealed that about 6 in 10 Republicans believe that the votes in last year’s presidential election were counted correctly nationwide, compared to only 2 in 10 Republicans who were confident in an earlier poll conducted in October. Additionally, about two-thirds of Republicans expressed confidence in their state’s vote count, a notable increase from the numbers before the election.
This rise in confidence among Republicans has contributed to an overall increase in the share of Americans expressing trust in the accuracy of the election process. The poll found that roughly 6 in 10 Americans now have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in the election count, a higher percentage than in October when only about half of Americans were highly confident in the accuracy of the votes. This change in sentiment is in stark contrast to the aftermath of the 2020 election, when Trump’s false claims of election fraud fueled distrust among his supporters and ultimately led to the violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Despite ongoing doubts about the legitimacy of Biden’s presidency among Republicans throughout his term, the recent poll indicates a significant shift in their perceptions of election security. Trump’s continued efforts to cast doubt on the validity of U.S. elections, even on Election Day itself, did not prevent a majority of Republicans from feeling confident in the accuracy of last year’s vote. This newfound trust extends to local election officials as well, with about 7 in 10 Americans expressing confidence that the votes in the 2024 presidential election were counted accurately by their local officials, up from about 6 in 10 in October.
The poll results also highlight a contrast in confidence levels between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats showing a slight decline in their trust in the national vote count compared to earlier polls. However, this decrease in Democratic confidence is not as pronounced as the skepticism that persisted among Republicans following Trump’s loss in 2020. While Vice President Kamala Harris conceded her defeat to Trump the day after Election Day in a peaceful transition of power, some conservatives had attempted to block Biden from taking office, reflecting the stark partisan divisions surrounding election results.
Overall, the findings of the poll suggest a shift in attitudes towards election security among Republicans, with a majority now expressing confidence in the accuracy of the vote count. The decrease in skepticism among Republicans, particularly towards local election officials, may indicate a positive trend in the aftermath of 2020’s contentious election. However, the contrasting levels of confidence between Democrats and Republicans highlight the ongoing political divisions surrounding election integrity in the United States, underscoring the challenges of building consensus and trust in the electoral process.
