Last week, the Russian military launched a new offensive into the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, advancing several kilometers and reoccupying villages that had been liberated by Ukraine in September 2022. Their goal is to threaten Ukraine’s second most populous city, Kharkiv, in an attempt to expose weaknesses in other areas of the front line. While Ukraine aims to stabilize the front line and prevent major Russian breakthroughs, they are facing challenges including lack of ammunition, manpower and fortifications. Despite recent aid from the United States, the situation is likely to worsen before improvements are seen.
Russia’s strategy is not to conquer Kharkiv but to menace it by advancing towards the city with artillery strikes. By drawing Ukrainian reserves and better units to defend Kharkiv, Russian forces hope to weaken other parts of the front line. Russia’s main focus remains on occupying the Donetsk region in the east, aiming to seize key transit hubs and population centers. Ukrainian units have already been redeployed from Donetsk to Kharkiv, leaving Donetsk vulnerable to future Russian attacks.
Ukraine has been facing a manpower shortage, especially in its infantry, since last summer’s counteroffensive. While progress has been made in improving fortifications and ammunition supplies, the lack of infantry remains a significant issue. The passing of a series of mobilization laws aims to address this problem by increasing the pool of soldiers through lowering draft eligibility age, punishing evaders, and incentivizing volunteers. However, it will take months for these changes to make a tangible impact.
With insufficient forces and ammunition, Ukraine’s military responds to Russian advances by moving its elite units around the front line, leading to exhaustion and degradation of these units over time. In contrast, Russia has addressed its manpower problems by recruiting contract servicemen at a rapid pace. Despite the qualitative edge this gives Russia, they still struggle to turn advances into major gains due to leadership losses and equipment shortages that are expected in 2025.
The passage of the U.S. aid bill provides Ukraine with resources to potentially hold off Russian advances and even restore offensive potential to its military. However, the future hinges on how effectively Ukraine and its Western allies can utilize these resources, manage forces, address manpower deficits, and strengthen defenses. If Ukraine can limit Russia to modest gains this year, Moscow’s window of opportunity may begin to close, and Ukraine’s relative advantage could improve by 2025. The coming months will be critical for Ukraine in defending itself while working to rebuild its military capabilities.
