Recent migration out of Pennsylvania and between its counties could impact the 2024 presidential election, potentially leading to an even closer matchup between President Biden and former President Trump than in 2020. Analysis of new census data by Berwood Yost, director of Floyd Institute’s Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, indicates that uneven patterns of in-and out-migration could make the battleground state even more closely contested in the upcoming election. In 2020, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Pennsylvania by under 100,000 votes, winning the state with a margin of 50% to 48.8%.
Since the 2020 election, census data has shown that counties won by Trump experienced a net gain in population of about 4,500 people, while Biden-won counties collectively lost over 45,000 people. Overall, Pennsylvania has seen a decline in population since 2020, with some of the largest losses occurring in counties that were strongholds of Biden’s support, such as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The impact of these population changes on Biden’s ability to win by large margins in these areas is a significant concern.
Trump’s spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, highlighted Biden’s low job approval rating in Pennsylvania and suggested that Pennsylvanians are rejecting the current administration’s policies and turning to support President Trump. With Biden’s approval rating falling to 36%, there are concerns about his ability to secure re-election in a state as pivotal as Pennsylvania. Migration patterns within the state, with individuals leaving Democratic-leaning areas like Philadelphia to move to more Republican-leaning areas, could further complicate the electoral landscape.
Yost pointed out that those leaving the Philadelphia area are likely to move to the suburbs around the city, which are also Democratic-leaning. However, individuals leaving Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County tend to move to places that heavily supported Trump, raising questions about whether their voting habits will change. The uncertainty surrounding the reasons for migration and the potential impact on voting behaviors adds a layer of complexity to the 2024 election in Pennsylvania.
Despite the challenges facing Biden, including his low approval rating and changing population dynamics within the state, the latest polling data shows a practical dead heat between Trump and Biden in Pennsylvania. The most recent Fox News poll indicated that 49% of respondents favored Trump, while 47% supported Biden, falling within the survey’s margin of error. The close competition between the two candidates underscores the importance of Pennsylvania as a critical battleground state in the upcoming election.
As the 2024 campaign progresses, the impact of migration patterns within Pennsylvania and between its counties on the electoral landscape remains uncertain. The potential for a closer matchup between Biden and Trump in the state looms large, with demographic shifts and changing voting behaviors adding complexity to the political terrain. With both campaigns focusing on appealing to key demographics like manufacturing workers, the race for Pennsylvania’s electoral votes is expected to be closely contested and closely watched in the coming election.
