In a CBS News poll conducted just before President Biden stepped aside as the Democratic Party’s nominee, a hypothetical match-up between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris showed Harris trailing Trump by three points among likely voters. While this margin was narrower than Biden’s five-point deficit against Trump, these numbers are subject to change as Harris gains more attention and scrutiny as the potential Democratic nominee. Harris has an opportunity to differentiate herself from the current president as a candidate, but she may also face increased criticism, leading to shifts in voter preferences as the campaign progresses.
The polling data suggests that President Biden struggled with key parts of his 2020 coalition, such as voters of color and younger voters who were less enthusiastic about his candidacy. Harris performed slightly better than Biden among these groups, but the differences were marginal. Her support levels among Black voters, Hispanic voters, and women voters were lower than Biden’s 2020 performance with these demographics. Furthermore, younger and Black voters have shown less certainty about voting in the upcoming election, indicating that Harris would need to increase her support or turnout within these important segments of the Democratic base if she secures the nomination.
In terms of other voter groups, Harris trailed Trump among independents in the last poll, a group that Biden had won nationally in 2020. However, Harris had a similar edge over Trump with White voters with college degrees, a group that Democrats have made inroads with in recent elections. Trump maintained a wider lead over Harris among groups like men and seniors compared to his 2020 margin, suggesting that Harris may need to work on appealing to these demographics to improve her chances in a general election.
The approval rating for Vice President Harris has closely mirrored President Biden’s, hovering around 40%. Earlier in the month, 42% of registered voters approved of the job Harris was doing as vice president. This indicates that Harris and Biden were often perceived as a “ticket” during their time in office, with their approval ratings aligning closely. The analysis is based on two separate CBS News/YouGov surveys conducted with representative samples of registered voters at two different time periods, with the data weighted based on gender, age, race, and education.
Overall, the polling data provides insight into the potential strengths and weaknesses of Vice President Kamala Harris as a candidate in a hypothetical match-up against former President Donald Trump. While Harris may have some advantages over Biden with certain key demographic groups, there are areas where she will need to make improvements in order to secure the support of the Democratic base and other important voter segments. As the campaign progresses and Harris becomes better known as a potential nominee, voter preferences may evolve, making it crucial for her to solidify her appeal to a broad range of voters in order to be successful in a general election.
