The content discusses the implications of the helicopter crash carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Iran’s East Azerbaijin province. Behnam Ben Taleblu, an expert on Iranian security at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, commented on the potential impact on Iran’s domestic politics. Raisi, known for his hard-right stance, has faced growing protests and decreasing election participation during his leadership. Taleblu highlighted Raisi’s controversial past, including involvement in mass executions in the late 1980s, and his lack of a strong social support base within Iran.
Raisi’s presidency marked a shift towards a more hard-right conservative ideology in Iranian politics. Taleblu pointed out that Raisi’s rise to power was based on loyalty and zeal rather than capability and competence. While Raisi held a powerful position as president, he lacked organic support from the Iranian population, serving as a vehicle for the ultra hard-right consolidation within the Islamic Republic. With Raisi potentially out of the picture due to the helicopter crash, the succession plan within Iran’s Shiite theocracy may be altered, with potential candidates like Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, vying for power.
As president, Raisi supported controversial policies such as Iran’s enrichment of uranium to near-weapons-grade levels and hampering international inspectors. He also endorsed attacking Israel in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack that killed Iranian generals in Syria. Raisi’s presidency was marked by a crackdown on dissent, including the violent suppression of protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022. A UN panel found Iran responsible for the violence that led to Amini’s death, highlighting the government’s repressive tactics in quelling dissent within the country.
The 2021 election that saw Raisi become president had the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, with millions of Iranians either staying home or voiding their ballots. Raisi’s presidency further fueled discontent among the population, leading to increased protests against the regime. With Raisi potentially removed from the political scene due to the helicopter crash, questions arise about the future direction of Iran’s leadership and the potential impact on the country’s domestic and international affairs. The power struggle within Iran’s ruling elite may intensify, with various factions vying for control in the absence of a strong and charismatic leader like Raisi.
