David Autor, a labor economist at MIT known for his research on job losses due to technology and trade, now believes that generative artificial intelligence (A.I.) could actually restore the middle-skill, middle-class jobs that have been disappearing. Modern A.I., he argues, can change the economics of decision-making, enabling more people to perform valuable work currently done by highly paid experts. If more individuals, including those without college degrees, can contribute in this way, they should be compensated accordingly, lifting them into the middle class.
Autor, who started his career in technology before transitioning to economics, has studied the impact of technology and globalization on workers and wages for decades. He has been involved in key studies showing the role of computerization in shifting demand towards college-educated workers and in the polarization of wages. While some economists see Autor’s ideas as intriguing but speculative, others are more pessimistic, predicting widespread job losses due to A.I. automation. However, Autor believes that A.I. can actually complement human workers, providing guidance and guardrails to help less expert employees perform higher-value work.
Unlike traditional computers, which follow rules and automate routine tasks, A.I. learns from vast amounts of data and examples, allowing it to perform more complex functions. Autor sees potential in A.I. helping workers without as much expertise to do more valuable work by offering guidance and guardrails. Early studies have shown increased productivity, particularly among less-skilled workers, when working alongside A.I. However, the distribution of rewards in terms of higher pay and career advancement will also depend on other factors such as corporate behavior, bargaining power, and policy incentives.
While there is uncertainty around how A.I. will impact the job market, Autor’s vision of A.I. as a worker complementary technology offers a more optimistic view. Some argue that history shows that new digital technologies have not necessarily led to better outcomes for all workers. Nonetheless, Autor believes in imagining positive outcomes, fostering debate, and preparing for a future where A.I. can be used as a tool for uplifting workers. Ultimately, how A.I. is utilized and its effects on the labor market will depend on the decisions we make as a society moving forward.
