On Tuesday, a special congressional election is taking place in Buffalo to replace Democrat Brian Higgins, who resigned in February. The Democrats have a strong history in the 26th Congressional District, and their nominee, Tim Kennedy, is expected to win the election. The Republicans have nominated Gary Dickson for the special election. Despite recent redistricting, the 26th District remains relatively unchanged, so the winner of this special election will face a similar electorate in November.
A Democratic victory in this special election would narrow the Republicans’ majority in the House by one vote, although three more special elections in previously Republican-held districts are scheduled before the end of June. The election will take place on Tuesday, with polls closing at 9 p.m. ET. Any registered voter in the 26th Congressional District is eligible to participate in the special election. Kennedy is running under the Democratic and Working Families Party tickets, while Dickson is the nominee for the Republican and Conservative parties.
The 26th Congressional District covers an area along the Niagara River, where most of the Republican support comes from the less populous northern part of the district. However, the majority of the votes come from the Democratic-leaning southern part in Erie County. Both Kennedy and Dickson are familiar names to voters in the district, with Kennedy serving as a state senator for Buffalo and Dickson as the West Seneca Town Supervisor. Kennedy has significantly outspent Dickson in the race, highlighting the importance both candidates are placing on securing a victory.
The Associated Press does not make projections on election outcomes and will only declare a winner once it is clear that the trailing candidates cannot close the gap. Turnout in the district has historically favored Democrats, with about 50% registered as Democrats compared to 22% Republicans. Early voting numbers show a strong turnout among Democrats, with 69% of early votes coming from registered Democrats. The vote-counting process in the 26th District typically concludes shortly after polls close on election night.
Recent history in House special elections in New York, such as the replacement of Republican George Santos by Democrat Tom Suozzi, demonstrates the potential for unpredictable outcomes. The House majority could be impacted by the results of the special election in Buffalo, with implications for the balance of power in Congress. The candidates are campaigning to appeal to a wide range of voters in the district, focusing on key issues such as taxes, infrastructure, and economic growth. The election results will provide insights into the political landscape leading up to the midterms in November.
