Russian forces were able to quickly penetrate Ukrainian territory when they observed that the trenches near the village of Ocheretyne were empty. The Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade took advantage of the situation by capturing most of Ocheretyne and potentially also Novobakhmutivka. This rapid penetration threatened to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka, marking the fastest advancement by Russian forces in months.
The collapse in Ocheretyne was not the fault of the 47th Mechanized Brigade which had been ordered to withdraw from the area in order to redeploy for much-needed rest. The 115th Mechanized Brigade was meant to replace them, but failed to hold their positions, allowing the Russian forces to enter. This triggered a panicky response from Ukrainian headquarters, resulting in the redeployment of the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade and a counterattack order for the 100th Mechanized Brigade, which lacked heavy equipment.
The 100th Mechanized Brigade, a former territorial brigade upgraded to the active army, was able to intercept Russian forces attempting to advance further west. They fought hard against the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade and other units, managing to stop their advance towards the village of Prohres. The uncertainty of the situation in and around Ocheretyne has led Ukrainian troops to maintain positions in the village’s western part and control fire over its southern part.
Ukraine’s reserves west of Avdiivka are limited, as evidenced by the need to quickly deploy a weaker brigade like the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counter the Russian advance. Russia, on the other hand, has an entire tank division, the 90th, in reserve around Avdiivka. The potential threat of the 90th Tank Division entering Ocheretyne before the Ukrainian command mobilizes additional reinforcements could lead to a broader breakthrough, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat.
A positive development for Ukraine was the $1 billion in fresh munitions rushed by the United States after the U.S Congress finally approved additional aid to Ukraine. This aid will be crucial for the Ukrainian brigades around Ocheretyne, especially the lightly-equipped 100th Mechanized Brigade. The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalations in the conflict depending on the actions of both Ukrainian and Russian forces in the region.
For the Ukrainians, the best reason to be hopeful is the $1 billion in fresh munitions the United States rushed to Ukraine in the hours after the U.S Congress finally, after six months of delay, approved additional U.S. aid to Ukraine on Tuesday.
The Ukrainian brigades around Ocheretyne will need every bullet, shell and missile they can get. Especially the lightly-equipped 100th Mechanized Brigade.
