Pedro Sánchez’s letter has left everyone completely bewildered (including myself). It is something unheard of. It is difficult to think of precedents for something like this. It has all of us speculating and obsessively thinking about the fate of the president and, also, of the country. It represents a move that is hard to comprehend. If it is a resignation, it is strange to prepare for it with an announcement full of uncertainty. And if he does not plan to resign, then why this collective drama? With this letter, it seems impossible that on Monday the 29th he will announce that everything will continue as normal. Is there any reasonable interpretation of what has happened?
Let’s suppose that the letter is a wake-up call, not to the right-wing parties, who may think they are about to achieve their goal and will increase the pressure in the short term, but to the citizens. Something like “under these conditions, it is impossible to govern, take responsibility, think about me and my family.” From this point of view, the letter could be seen as a sort of “vote of confidence from the citizens.” Instead of asking Parliament to renew its confidence in the president, he would be asking the citizens themselves to give him a chance to defend himself and act against the relentless and merciless campaign of delegitimization that he has been suffering since he became the president of the Government in 2018. Perhaps he wants to gather evidence to argue that he is now being a victim of an episode of lawfare.
Although the wait is going to be long, we will soon find out the truth. What I want to highlight at this moment is that a letter like the one we have seen is only conceivable in a toxic, extremely flawed political system. A couple of decades ago, in the pages of this newspaper, there was talk of adverse selection, of how the structures and rules of political parties created incentives for bad politicians to gain positions. In the context of strong confrontation and tension in which we find ourselves, the problem of adverse selection has other features: only those who can withstand the unbearable pressure of public debate survive in politics.
If I had to make a guess, I would say that Sánchez is going to step down. If he does, it is likely that the government coalition will fall apart, leading to elections in which the right-wing parties will most likely win, emboldened by having taken down their most prized target. All we can do now is hope that, during these calm days, Sánchez re-reads his Manual of Resistance.
