The elections in the Basque Country ended with a tie in seats between the PNV and EH Bildu. The abertzale coalition achieved its best result, but the former remained the most voted force. The PNV is likely to govern with the help of the PSE-EE, as there are two easy ways to reach the majority of 38 seats and win the investiture. The PNV and EH Bildu surpass this quota comfortably, but the PNV has the option of turning to the Socialists of the PSE-EE for support, as they did in 2020. This agreement seems to be the most likely outcome.
One key aspect of the election results is that the PNV has maintained its position as the top voted party, as in all Basque elections in democracy. It surpasses EH Bildu by almost three points, although it has lost four seats since 2020 and has seen a decrease in almost all municipalities. EH Bildu achieved its best result, increasing from 27.9% in 2020 to 32.5% on this Sunday. This marked growth was mostly driven by votes from Unidas Podemos, with nearly a third of former Unidas Podemos voters now supporting EH Bildu. The coalition also attracted voters from the PNV and the PSE-EE.
EH Bildu has been particularly strong in small municipalities, similar to 2020. However, its growth has been widespread, with an increase of around five points in towns with less than 1,000 inhabitants, as well as in larger cities. The space of Unidas Podemos has decreased to levels seen before its formation, with its representation now vastly reduced compared to previous years. The combined support of the PNV and EH Bildu reached 67.7% of the votes, slightly improving from 2020, making it the best result in historical series.
Despite the success of nationalist parties in the elections, this does not necessarily reflect a surge in nationalism or independence sentiment among the population. Surveys have shown a decrease in the percentage of those who identify solely as Basque or more Basque than Spanish, as well as a decline in support for independence. The polls leading up to the election were relatively accurate, with minor discrepancies primarily in the projected seats for EH Bildu and the PSE-EE. Overall, the predictions were close to the actual results, with parties such as Sumar and Vox making gains while Podemos fell behind.
