China is likely analyzing Iran’s failed attack on Israel to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan. Experts believe that China will focus on how Israel and its allies thwarted the attack. Tensions between China and Taiwan have heightened in recent years, with Taiwan expecting US support in the event of an attack from China. A vote in the US House of Representatives also confirmed aid for security in the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan. However, some experts believe that the pro-Taiwan alliance may not be operating as smoothly as the Israel alliance.
Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, stated that China would likely study the failed Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel to better prepare for an invasion of Taiwan. China will analyze how Israel and its allies were able to shoot down most of the drones and missiles launched by Iran. The high kill rate of the munitions in the attack will likely make the People’s Liberation Army realize the technology and alliance that can blunt an attack. Former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, Mike Studeman, warned that Beijing appears to be on the “march to war,” with China modernizing its military and accelerating milestones to have Taiwan options earlier.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have been rising since Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party won a third consecutive term in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential elections. In August 2022, military exercises by China over Taiwan, including “live-fire drills,” raised tensions even further. In April 2023, China launched military drills around Taiwan after then-president Tsai Ing-wen visited the US. China described the drills as a “stern warning against the collusion between separatist forces.” It is believed that China’s actions and the analysis of the failed attack on Israel are all part of Beijing’s preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan.
In the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan, Taiwan expects to rely on US support, similar to how Israel relies on its allies. A vote in the US House of Representatives approved aid for security in the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan. However, some experts believe that the alliance in support of Taiwan may not be operating as smoothly as the one supporting Israel. It is important for Taiwan to work on building a common operating platform and seamless interoperability with its allies to effectively counter any potential threat from China. The analysis of the failed Iranian attack on Israel will provide insights for both China and Taiwan in terms of military capabilities and strategies.
As tensions continue to escalate between China and Taiwan, the situation in the region remains precarious. China’s modernization of its military and accelerated milestones indicate a potential threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty. The analysis of Iran’s failed attack on Israel provides valuable lessons for both China and Taiwan in terms of defense strategies and the capabilities of their respective militaries. The international community will be closely watching the developments in the region, as any conflict between China and Taiwan could have far-reaching implications. It is crucial for all parties involved to work towards peaceful resolutions and diplomatic solutions to avoid any escalation of hostilities in the region.
