The latest national NBC News poll shows that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is cutting into former President Donald Trump’s support more than President Joe Biden’s. Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, but when the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden takes a 2-point advantage. This shift is largely due to a greater share of Trump voters backing Kennedy in the expanded ballot, with 15% of Trump supporters choosing Kennedy compared to 7% of Biden supporters. Additionally, Republican voters view Kennedy more favorably than Democratic voters do.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and Republican pollster Bill McInturff conducted the NBC News poll and found that Kennedy’s appeal seems to be more with Trump voters than Biden voters. This contradicts conventional political wisdom and results of other national polls, which suggest that a bigger third-party vote hurts Biden more. McInturff notes that the NBC News poll results on Kennedy’s impact may be an outlier or could be a sign of things to come. The Biden campaign is actively trying to peel support away from Kennedy, with Biden holding events with members of the Kennedy family who are endorsing the president over their relative.
The Democratic Party is paying close attention to Kennedy and is mobilizing new super PACs and an arm of the Democratic National Committee to reduce the pull of his candidacy. The NBC News poll, conducted April 12-16 of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, with an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points, reflects the growing concern within the party about Kennedy’s potential impact on the election. Republican voters have a more positive view of Kennedy than Democratic voters, with 40% of Republicans viewing him positively compared to 16% of Democrats.
The results of the NBC News poll highlight the significant impact that third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is having on the dynamics of the presidential race. While Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden in a head-to-head matchup, Biden gains an advantage when the ballot is expanded to include Kennedy and other third-party candidates. This has challenged the traditional assumption that third-party candidates draw support primarily from one party over the other and has prompted the Biden campaign to actively seek endorsements from the Kennedy family to counteract this trend.
The findings of the NBC News poll suggest that Kennedy’s appeal is resonating more with Trump voters than with Biden supporters, despite previous assumptions that a third-party candidate would hurt Biden’s chances more. The Democratic Party is taking swift action to address this potential challenge by creating new super PACs and focusing on reducing the impact of Kennedy’s candidacy. As the election approaches, the attention on Kennedy and the impact of third-party candidates on the race are likely to become more pronounced, leading to a reevaluation of voter support and campaign strategies in the coming months.
