Euskadi is voting this Sunday to choose the thirteenth Basque Parliament that will elect the sixth Lehendakari of democracy. For the first time since 1980, the two nationalist forces are almost evenly matched and are playing for political hegemony. The possibility of EH Bildu surpassing the PNV in votes is a real possibility, which has never happened before. These elections are also marked by generational change, with five out of the seven candidates for Lehendakari being new, making it very different from the elections held four years ago during the pandemic. The main candidates, including Imanol Pradales (PNV), Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu), Eneko Andueza (PSE-EE), Javier de Andrés (PP), Miren Gorrotxategi (Podemos), Alba García (Sumar), and Amaia Martínez (Vox), have run a campaign that has been respectful and constructive, impacted by events such as the Athletic Club’s Cup win, the death of former Lehendakari José Antonio Ardanza, and a recent attack on Pradales during a rally.
The PNV has won every Basque Parliament election in terms of votes until now. However, for the first time, the PNV might have fewer votes than EH Bildu on Sunday. It is also likely that the PNV may lose seats, as the electoral system gives 25 seats to each province and the PNV is stronger in Bizkaia, which has the same population as Gipuzkoa and Álava combined. This could signal a significant social change if the PNV were to lose its political dominance to a party like EH Bildu, especially given their younger voter base. The election results may show a parliament with the most nationalist representation in history, with the PNV and EH Bildu potentially holding 58 out of 75 seats, a significant increase from previous elections.
The focus of the campaign has been on everyday issues such as healthcare, the economy, and housing, with the topic of terrorism fading into the background. However, a recent misstep by Otxandiano in failing to acknowledge ETA as a terrorist organization and then attempting to apologize to victims has brought the issue back into focus. In a society where concerns about ETA have diminished significantly, this incident has raised questions about the ethical stance of EH Bildu. The elections on Sunday could lead to a more nationalist-leaning parliament, despite a waning separatist sentiment in Basque society.
With no party expected to secure an absolute majority, post-election agreements will be necessary to form a government. The PSE-EE, popularly known as the socialists, may hold the key to governing as a result of an evenly matched race between the PNV and EH Bildu. While EH Bildu wants to govern based on the principle of the most votes, aligning with the socialists against the PNV could have consequences for the national government in Madrid. Additionally, the marginalized parties like Podemos Euskadi and Sumar are at risk of losing their foothold in Basque politics as voter preferences shift towards EH Bildu and the PSE-EE.
The outcome of the elections remains uncertain, with a high number of undecided voters, especially among PNV supporters. The participation rate on Sunday will play a crucial role in determining the political landscape in Euskadi. The results could reflect a significant change in the balance of power, with potential implications for future alliances and coalitions. As Euskadi votes on Sunday, the political future of the region hangs in the balance, with possible shifts in power dynamics and ideological orientations.
