The article discusses the latest polling data for the upcoming Basque regional elections, with EH Bildu leading in the polls and potentially poised to win the most seats. The model used to make these predictions takes into account the average of several polls and simulates the election results thousands of times to calculate the probability of different outcomes. The data suggests that EH Bildu has a 64% chance of winning the most seats, compared to the PNV’s 29%.
Despite EH Bildu’s lead in the polls, it is still possible for the PNV to continue leading the Basque government. The article explains that political agreements make it highly likely for Imanol Pradales of the PNV to be invested as lehendakari. The article outlines different scenarios for potential government formations, including the possibility of a coalition between EH Bildu and the PNV, as well as the option for the PNV to form a government with the support of the socialists.
The article also discusses potential surprises in the upcoming election, including the possibility of the PNV surpassing EH Bildu in seats, Sumar losing representation, and the entrance of Vox and Podemos into the government. While a government formation that does not involve the PNV and the socialists is seen as unlikely, it ultimately depends on the decisions of the leaders involved. The methodology used to calculate seat predictions is outlined, with a detailed explanation of the process involved.
Overall, the article provides insight into the current state of the Basque regional elections and offers predictions based on polling data and statistical modeling. The data suggests that EH Bildu is in a strong position to potentially win the most seats, but the PNV still has a chance to maintain its position in the government. The article also highlights the possibility of unexpected outcomes in the election, emphasizing the importance of considering various factors in predicting the final results.
