Russian forces have been withdrawn from Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, where they had been stationed as peacekeepers since the end of a war in 2020. This decision was confirmed by officials from both countries, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Azerbaijan’s Hikmet Hajiyev both acknowledging the withdrawal. While no further details were given about the reasons behind the decision, it is speculated that the presence of Russian forces in the region became superfluous after Azerbaijan regained full control of the area.
The Karabakh region had been under the control of ethnic Armenians until the war in 2020, which resulted in Azerbaijan regaining control. Following the war, a Russia-brokered cease-fire called for the placement of around 2,000 peacekeeping troops in the parts of Karabakh still held by Armenians, with the duties of ensuring free passage on the sole road connecting Karabakh with Armenia. However, tensions rose when Azerbaijan began blocking the road in late 2022, accusing Armenians of using it for weapons shipments and smuggling minerals, with the Russian forces failing to intervene. This led to dire food and medicine shortages in Karabakh, prompting Azerbaijan to launch a blitz in September 2023 that forced Karabakh Armenian authorities to capitulate after one day of negotiations mediated by Russian forces.
The swift capitulation of the Karabakh Armenian authorities led to almost all of the region’s 50,000 ethnic Armenian residents fleeing within days. With Azerbaijan regaining control of the region, the role of Russian peacekeeping forces in Karabakh became increasingly unnecessary, resulting in their withdrawal. The reasons behind the withdrawal have not been explicitly stated, but it is clear that the situation on the ground has evolved since the end of the war in 2020, rendering the presence of these forces redundant.
The withdrawal of Russian forces from Karabakh marks a significant development in the region, signaling the shifting dynamics following the end of the war in 2020. The fate of the region remains uncertain as tensions persist between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the recent events highlighting the delicate balance of power in the area. The withdrawal of peacekeeping forces may have implications for the stability of the region and future peace negotiations between the two countries, as well as potential repercussions for the ethnic Armenian population in Karabakh who have already faced displacement.
Moving forward, it will be crucial for Armenia and Azerbaijan to work towards a lasting resolution to the conflict in Karabakh, ensuring the rights and security of all ethnic groups in the region. The withdrawal of Russian forces may provide an opportunity for both countries to reengage in dialogue and find a sustainable path towards peace and stability. As the situation in Karabakh continues to evolve, international actors will also play a key role in supporting efforts towards reconciliation and addressing the root causes of the conflict, in order to prevent further escalation and humanitarian crises in the region.
