The current level of mistrust between Chinese and American military intentions is deep, with Gen. Anthony Cotton expressing doubts about China’s no-first-use policy and suggesting that China’s rapid nuclear expansion could indicate otherwise. The Pentagon also highlighted in a report that Beijing might consider using nuclear weapons first in a crisis, especially if it comes down to the survival of Mr. Xi’s regime, such as in a war with Taiwan. There is uncertainty surrounding how China would respond if its nuclear forces were hit during a conflict, with the Pentagon admitting that the outcome is “unknown.” Despite these challenges, it is crucial for Beijing and Washington to engage in dialogue and diplomacy to better understand each other’s nuclear policies and address concerns.
Talking through points of contention may help bridge the gulf of fear and suspicion between the two nations, particularly around Taiwan. While an unequivocal no-first-use pledge may be difficult to achieve and verify, engaging in discussions can still set the stage for future agreements. It is important for Washington to consider Beijing’s invitation and seek common ground to build new agreements for a safer future. Under Mr. Xi, China has moved away from its policy of minimum deterrence, highlighting the need for arms control agreements to safeguard against potential nuclear threats.
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In a time of heightened tensions and uncertainty, it is crucial for China and the United States to engage in dialogue and diplomacy to address nuclear policy concerns and foster trust. Despite the challenges and uncertainties surrounding a potential no-first-use pledge, discussing and understanding each other’s positions can lay the groundwork for future agreements. As the only remaining major arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, New START serves as a reminder of the importance of building agreements to promote a safer international environment.
The Biden administration’s commitment to arms control offers an opportunity to seek common ground with Beijing and work towards building new agreements for the safety and security of both nations. By engaging in dialogue and diplomacy, both countries can better understand each other’s nuclear policies and work towards addressing mutual concerns. It is essential for both China and the United States to prioritize communication and cooperation in order to navigate the complexities and challenges of nuclear diplomacy in today’s world.
