EH Bildu, a coalition including Sortu, is predicted to win the upcoming Basque elections, surpassing the PNV, the dominant party in the region for the past four decades. The division between Podemos and Sumar is expected to continue to hurt them, possibly leaving them without representation in the Basque Parliament. EH Bildu’s lead candidate, Pello Otxandiano, stands to benefit from the decline of the leftist confederal space, potentially securing 30 seats in the Parliament, surpassing the PNV. The PSE is expected to hold its 10 seats, potentially forming a coalition with the PNV for a third consecutive term.
The preference for a coalition government between the PNV and PSE remains strong among voters, although slightly lower than in previous polls. An alternative coalition between the PNV and EH Bildu is also gaining support. However, a coalition between EH Bildu and the PSE seems unlikely due to the latter’s veto on the leftist abertzale party. The campaign has seen a significant transfer of voters from Podemos and Sumar to EH Bildu, boosting the latter’s support almost 13 years after the end of ETA terrorism.
The PNV, which has historically dominated Basque elections, is facing a decline in support, with some of its voters now leaning towards EH Bildu. The campaign has seen a renewed interest in the PSE, which is vying for left-wing votes against EH Bildu. The introduction of new candidates has resulted in low recognition among voters, with Imanol Pradales of the PNV and Eneko Andueza of the PSE being the most recognized. EH Bildu’s candidate, Pello Otxandiano, is the best-rated, but Pradales leads as the preferred lehendakari.
EH Bildu and the PNV, both nationalist parties, are projected to secure a significant portion of the vote and seats in the Basque Parliament. However, support for Basque independence does not necessarily align with the parties’ performance. EH Bildu’s voters show a stronger preference for independence, while the PNV’s support for increased autonomy is more prominent. The issue of independence ranks low among concerns for the general population, with issues like inflation, healthcare, and public services taking precedence.
Overall, the situation in the Basque Country is viewed positively by a majority of respondents. However, opinions are divided on whether the region has improved or worsened over the past four years. The performance of the Basque Government, expected to be led by the PNV for another term, receives mixed reviews. The healthcare system has been a point of criticism, even among PNV voters. The upcoming elections will be crucial in determining the political landscape in the region, with EH Bildu potentially making significant gains and reshaping the traditional dominance of the PNV.
